UAE Tour 2025 Contenders - Can anyone beat Tadej Pogačar?
Jasper Philipsen, Sam Welsford, Tim Merlier, Olav Kooij and Jonathan Milan to fight for sprint victories
![UAE Tour contenders Tadej Pogacar and Lennert Van Eetvelt](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/HfpFgKUhohjBfXCQoKSqbE-1200-80.png)
Racing in the Middle East continues after the Tour of Oman with the region's only WorldTour race, the UAE Tour.
Since it was first run in its current form in 2019 after the Abu Dhabi Tour and the Dubai Tour merged, it has become one of the key early-season form markers, with an illustrious list of former winners: Primož Roglič, Adam Yates, Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel, and most recently, Lennert Van Eetvelt.
While Van Eetvelt is back to defend his title, all eyes will be on the season debut of Pogačar, who returns to his team's home race to reclaim the red jersey he won in both 2022 and 2021.
Pogačar makes his 2025 season debut but won't face off against the sport's other top GC stars Jonas Vingegaard, Roglič and Evenepoel. The Belgian continues his rehabilitation back from injury, while Vingegaard and Roglič have opted to debut at the Volta ao Algarve.
The Slovenian will wear his world champion's rainbow jersey as he looks to bring UAE Team Emirates-XRG victory once again. After his historic Triple Crown-winning 2024 season, Pogačar starts his pursuit of more history in 2025 in the UAE, before the Classics and then defending his Tour de France and World titles.
Pogačar is the natural favourite going into the seven-day stage race, not only because of his absolute dominance last season but how well he's performed in the UAE before. He has won both of the two mountaintop finishes to Jebel Jais and Jebel Hafeet before and should also be the strongest GC contender in the 12.2km stage 2 time trial.
Van Eetvelt is a worthy challenger, however, and showed his talents with the stage victory up Hafeet last year, which brought him the overall win. The Belgian is still only 23 and despite missing a lot of last season due to injury, he showed signs of what he can do at the Vuelta and Il Lombardia - against Pogačar - before closing out the year with victory at the Tour of Guangxi.
Many of Pogačar stage race rivals have avoided the UAE Tour but Pello Bilbao, a two-time podium finisher, will be a threat as he leads Bahrain-Victorious. He is fresh from a strong third-place finish at the Volta a Valenciana, where teammate Santiago Buitrago took the win.
The other key storyline to follow in the UAE will be the clash of the sprinters on the flat stages. The UAE Tour has often been dubbed the "unofficial World Championships" with four possible sprint finishes if cross winds don't spark echelons and chaos on the desert roads.
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease a Bike), Sam Welsford (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla) are all riders to watch.
Bearing these factors in mind, here are Cyclingnews' top favourites to watch in this year's UAE Tour.
The fight for the general classification
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
All eyes will be on Tadej Pogačar as he kicks off his 2025 campaign at the UAE Tour on February 17.
The Slovenian reached new heights last year when he became only the third-ever male rider to win the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France and World Championships in the same season, after Eddy Merckx and Stephen Roche.
Alongside that famous trio of wins, he dominated the large majority of races he started, netting 25 victories from just 58 race days and winning every stage race he started by more than 3:40.
He is more than just the favourite for the UAE Tour and anything but a dominant win would be a huge surprise.
Jebel Jais and Jebel Hafeet are climbs Pogačar knows well, having taken victory on both of them at his last UAE Tour appearance in 2022. The stage 2 time trial also won't be a problem given the form he showed winning both a Giro and Tour ITT last season.
The record winning margin in the UAE is 1:01 held by Adam Yates, coincidentally ahead of his now-teammate Pogačar back in 2020. However, with the world champion looking as dominant as ever, 2025 could be the year that the record advantage is widened.
Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto)
Lennert Van Eetvelt arrives at the UAE Tour with the status of defending champion, and while Pogačar presents a challenge that could seem insurmountable, the Belgian won't give it up without a fight.
He won up Jebel Hafeet last season and also showed the race intellect to gain bonus seconds at an intermediate during one of the flat stages which, after only beating Ben O'Connor by two seconds, proved invaluable.
The 12.2km individual time trial could be a problem for Van Eetvelt. He lost more than 20 seconds to many of his GC rivals last year, which in the UAE, is an age.
Van Eetvelt leads Lotto's hopes, with the 23-year-old one of their key leaders in 2025 as they look to secure promotion back to the WorldTour.
UCI points will be important and Van Eetvelt can score a heap of them at the UAE Tour if he is anywhere close to his form from last season.
Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)
Pello Bilbao has been a consistent performer at the UAE Tour, with three starts in the Middle East's only WorldTour race resulting in two third-place finishes, including last season, and a fourth-place finish in 2023.
While there isn't much descending for the Spaniard to show off where he's one of the absolute best in the world, his consistent climbing is more than strong enough to compete for the podium.
He's also finished in the top five of all three stages to Jebel Hafeet that he's raced in the past three editions of the UAE Tour, so he should finish the race strongly when that mountain once again draws the race to a close on Sunday, February 23.
Bilbao showed solid form in the Volta a Valenciana last week so he should be confident that he can build upon the third place he scored there, behind teammate and overall winner Santiago Buitrago, as he looks for more success in the UAE.
Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)
One of Bilbao's compatriots Carlos Rodríguez also announced that he would be racing in the UAE after a solid five days of racing in Valencia. He finished sixth in his native Spain but will be searching for more in the UAE.
Rodríguez will lead the GC charge for the Ineos Grenadiers as they continue to try and rebuild and look for more wins after a bitterly tough 2024 season.
At 24 Rodríguez is one of their top young stars who still has room to develop, and as a fourth-place finisher and stage winner at the Tour de France, he's the perfect candidate for the British team to attempt to build around.
josh Tarling is also in the Ineos Grenadiers tam for the UAE Tour and perhaps a contender for the 12.2km time trial alongside Pogačar and Milan.
Rodríguez's GC chances will emerge on Jebel Jais and Jebel Hafeet. A podium place behind Pogačar would be a good result.
Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL)
Leading the GC challenge for Picnic-PostNL at the UAE Tour will be Great Britain's Oscar Onley, with the 22-year-old looking for more consistency after a solid start to the season Down Under. It'll be his first appearance at the UAE Tour.
The Scot finished fourth overall in Australia but was second up the key stage to Willunga Hill. This was worse than he managed in 2024 but could suggest that he is aiming to peak to arrive later in 2025.
Still in the infancy of his career as a GC rider, Onley has impressed in Australia twice as mentioned but also at the Tour of Britain where he was second last season and the Tour of Guangxi where he was also the runner-up behind Van Eetvelt.
Having only narrowly lost out on that victory in China by five seconds, Onley will look for a step up to his form from Australia and challenge the podium.
The sprinters vying for top spot
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Belgian sprint star Jasper Philipsen is back at the UAE Tour in 2025 for the first time since 2022, when he won three stages. The UAE Tour offers an early chance to see how his form matches up against his key sprint rivals.
Philipsen has been the most successful sprinter at the Tour de France in recent editions, racking up nine stage victories in the past three years.
Philipsen will be looking to score at least two stages in the four chances at the UAE Tour, with the goal of course being all four.
While he'll be without Mathieu van der Poel as a special lead out man, Alpecin-Deceuninck have impressed with several different trains in their support of Philipsen in recent years, often delivering him in the best positions of any team.
Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep)
Tim Merlier was the dominant sprint force at last year's UAE Tour, netting three stage wins out of the four sprint opportunities on offer.
This, coupled with his two stage victories from the year prior means he won the most stages of any rider in the Emirati race's history, surpassing Pogačar's four stage triumphs.
European champion Merlier impresses by coming from deep in the bunch finishes, often not even requiring the most ideal lead-out. However, when the likes of right-hand man Bert Van Lerberghe deliver him well, Merlier has looked unstoppable.
With a return to the Tour de France finally looking likely for the Belgian this summer, Merlier should be more motivated than ever ahead of his second appearance at cycling's biggest race.
After kicking off the season strongly with two wins at the AlUla Tour, Merlier also has the advantage of winning momentum that Philipsen doesn't have heading into the race.
Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek)
Lidl-Trek's Jonathan Milan has been the sprint revelation of the last two seasons, bursting onto the scene with a brutally powerful Giro stage win in 2023 and only kicking on to bigger and better things in 2024.
The Italian has dropped some of the highest raw power numbers in recent years and has often been compared to all-time sprinting great Marcel Kittel for his size and the sheer aggression with which he handles his bike during a bunch finish.
Milan got the better of Philipsen twice at Tirreno-Adriatico last year so certainly knows he's capable against the best and he and Merlier similarly had great duels at the Giro d'Italia last season. They each won three stages, and Milan will also be at the Tour later in July as he makes his debut there.
With July firmly in mind, the UAE Tour is the perfect test of form for road cycling's fastest sprinters.
Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease a Bike)
On par with the three above is Visma-Lease a Bike's Olav Kooij, who is a year younger than Milan at 23, and has already racked up an impressive 38 pro wins in his first three seasons. He doesn't have the motivation of the Tour to aid him but Kooij will head back to the Giro in May.
The Dutchman has often gone without a top lead-out dedicated to his ambitions, as the men in yellow and black chase GC success at races. However, with the signing of experienced Brit Dan McLay as his lead-out, Kooij has specific help for the fast finishes.
Visma's decision to sign McLay has arguably already been vindicated, with McLay helping guide Kooij to two stage victories at the Tour of Oman last week.
Alongside a strong train of young riders, including U23 world champion Niklas Behrens, Kooij eased to the win in the flat finales and will be confident he can build on his one win from the UAE Tour last season when the racing starts on Monday.
Sam Welsford (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
The last sprinter highlighted on our list is Australia's Sam Welsford, as the most successful sprinter of the season so far.
Welsford dominated the fast finishes at his home Tour Down Under, also taking home the national criterium title during a very successful block of racing during the Australian summer.
However, while he was impressive at the TDU, Welsford also won three stages at last year's Tour Down Under before heading to the UAE Tour and not getting close to a victory. His best was third but he was well away from the levels of Merlier and Kooij who won the flat finishes.
With no Grand Tour yet confirmed on his schedule, Welsford has to impress the selection staff at Red Bull to ensure he can show off his talents during one of the three-week Tours. The UAE Tour is the perfect stage to do so.
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James Moultrie is a gold-standard NCTJ journalist who joined Cyclingnews as a News Writer in 2023 after originally contributing as a freelancer for eight months, during which time he also wrote for Eurosport, Rouleur and Cycling Weekly. Prior to joining the team he reported on races such as Paris-Roubaix and the Giro d’Italia Donne for Eurosport and has interviewed some of the sport’s top riders in Chloé Dygert, Lizzie Deignan and Wout van Aert. Outside of cycling, he spends the majority of his time watching other sports – rugby, football, cricket, and American Football to name a few.
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