Tour de France 2022 stage 18 preview –Hautacam backdrop for last dance in the Pyrenees

Where is stage 18: Lourdes to Hautacam, 

Date: July 21, 2022

How long is stage 18: 143.2km

Stage 18 start and finish time: 13:30 - 17:25 CEST

Stage type: Mountain

After a week of trying to recoup ground on Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France, all Tadej Pogačar has to show for his efforts are the four bonus seconds he clawed back with stage victory atop Peyragudes on Wednesday. But the defending champion will undoubtedly go again on the road to Hautacam on stage 18. He has no choice. This is the last dance.

Pogačar, like most of the general classification contenders, couched the Tour’s foray into the Pyrenees less as three individual stages than as one trilogy of racing, suggesting that the final part was the one most likely to create sizeable gaps. He will hope that cumulative fatigue and the weight of the yellow jersey finally begin to exact a toll from Vingegaard, though the Dane has shown no signs of vulnerability thus far and his 2:18 advantage is an imposing one.

Both Jumbo-Visma and UAE Team Emirates have endured setbacks this week, but then exceeded themselves shortly afterwards. On stage 16 to Foix, Vingegaard’s teammates Wout van Aert and Sepp Kuss were dominant figures, compensating for the loss of Primoz Roglič and Steven Kruijswijk. A day later, Mikkel Bjerg and Brandon McNulty conjured up supersonic displays on the Col du Val Louron Azet and Peyragudes, just when it seemed UAE Team Emirates had been depleted beyond recognition.

All the while, however, nothing could separate Vingegaard and Pogačar. The Slovenian’s attacks, whether they came uphill or downhill, early or late, have all been met with an immediate response from Vingegaard. The task of chasing Pogačar is one he has steadfastly declined to delegate to his teammates, and that is likely to be the case once more on this final leg in the Pyrenees, over the Col d’Aubisque, Col de Spandelles and Hautacam.

Vingegaard and Pogačar have been in a race of their own for most of this Tour, as the general classification picture suggests, and there is little prospect of that scenario changing on the final day in the mountains. Geraint Thomas (Ineos) will look to manage his resources safely to defend his podium place while David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Nairo Quintana (Arkea-Samsic) and Romain Bardet (DSM) do battle behind, but those skirmishes seem unlikely to impact on the day’s key duel.

The stage – and the outcome of the entire Tour – will instead essentially be defined by two questions: will Pogačar attack from distance or wait for Hautacam, and will Vingegaard be able to follow?

The logic of this Tour suggests that Vingegaard can hold firm, but then the logic of the 2020 Tour said that Roglič would wear yellow into Paris. Pogačar has previous when it comes to late and unexpected heists against a Tour leader from Jumbo-Visma, hence Van Aert’s wariness when asked about Vingegaard’s commanding position on Wednesday. “We paid a price to learn that the yellow jersey isn’t yours until you bring it to the Champs-Élysées,” he said.

Vingegaard, meanwhile, rides in the wheel tracks of the two Danes who last brought the yellow jersey to the top of the Aubisque and to Hautacam. In 2007, Michael Rasmussen was sent home from the race by Jumbo-Visma’s forerunner Rabobank on the very night he won atop the Aubisque, having been found to have lied about his whereabouts to evade doping controls before the Tour.

In 1996 on Hautacam, Bjarne Riis sealed overall victory at the Tour on Hautacam with one of the most notorious displays of cycling’s most publicly tarnished era. A little over a decade later, he confessed to doping and was briefly excised from the record books, though he was quickly restored as Denmark’s first and only Tour winner on the roll of honour.

Vingegaard looks increasingly likely to join him in the record books. The opening time trial and the cobbled stage aside, he has conceded only time bonuses to Pogačar on this Tour. A repeat performance on Thursday will win Vingegaard the Tour. Pogačar, on the other hand, will be required to conjure up a comeback that would exceed even that startling final time trial of two years ago. Stranger things have happened, but not often.

The route

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Starting in the famous pilgrimage town of Lourdes, the stage will take the peloton west for 46km before heading south for another 14km. After the intermediate sprint in Laruns, the HC climb of the Col d'Aubisque begins.

The 16.4 kilometres at an average gradient of 7.1%, the Aubisque is the longest climb of the stage. The first seven kilometres climb at between 4% and 7%, followed by the steepest kilometre at an average of 10%. On the second half of the climb, the gradient never dips below 8%, with 9% ramps two kilometres from the top and just before the col.

The descent is interrupted by the short, unclassified Col de Soulor, but eventually, riders reach the first-category Col de Spandelles, included in the Tour for the first time. 10.3km long, the gradient varies from 6.6% to 9.7%, making it a hard and irregular climb. An 18-kilometre descent will take the race to the foot of the HC climb to the finish at Hautacam.

Like the Col de Spandelles, the 13.6-kilometre Hautacam isn't a steady climb, and it will be hard to settle into a rhythm. On the first half, the gradient goes back and forth between 5.8% and 8.6%. The next two kilometres are very hard at 10.3% and 11.3%, respectively, followed by a kilometre at 6.8% and another 10.4% ramp. The final 2.6 kilometres climb at 6.5% to 7.9%, with the final kilometre being the steepest.

This is the final chance for the climbers to gain time and move up in the general classification. A breakaway with riders going for the polka-dot jersey, the stage, or both, will probably stay ahead for a long time but in the end, it should be the GC favourites who fight for the stage victory