‘It depends on what Pogačar wants to do’ – Oropa summit finish on stage 2 will shake Giro d’Italia

The poet Eugenio Montale once described Turin as a city of paradoxes, a place simultaneously both conservative and avant-garde, a town that defied summation in a few brief notes. Perhaps it was only fitting, then, that Tadej Pogačar’s visit to the city by the Po on the opening day of the 2024 Giro d’Italia was one of conflicting sensations.

His annoyance at missing out on stage victory against Jhonatan Narváez was palpable as he freewheeled through the finish area on Corso Moncalieri, and his ‘failure’ to claim the maglia rosa from the very outset of the race will be hopefully seized upon by some as proof that Pogačar, though the overwhelming favourite, is far from unbeatable on this Giro.

The other, more sober interpretation of the day, of course, is that Pogačar delivered an ominous display here and he also has something tangible to show for his efforts. The race has scarcely begun, and he has already managed to put time into all his general classification rivals, and on an unclassified climb to boot. He will start stage 2 already 14 seconds up on Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) and Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), and more than a minute clear of Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL).

There were other contrasts, too. While his UAE Team Emirates squad set a brisk tempo at the head of a reduced peloton for much of the afternoon in the hills south-east of Turin, Pogačar was rather isolated on the final classified ascent of the Colle Maddelena, with only Rafal Majka for company. Pogačar can resolve most problems with his own brute strength, of course, but even a virtuoso has to lean on the backing of a supporting orchestra every now and then.

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Oropa

Perhaps the greatest paradox of the Giro’s opening day, however, is that Pogačar has shown himself to be the strongest rider in the race and yet he will have come away feeling like he still has a point to prove. It makes for a heady combination as the Giro tackles its first summit finish at Oropa on Sunday afternoon, the earliest mountaintop finale since the race tackled Mount Etna on the corresponding stage in 1989.

It was obvious in Turin that Pogačar has no qualms about claiming the maglia rosa on the opening weekend of the race. It now seems clear that he will not be content simply to ride up Oropa on Sunday in the company of his fellow overall contenders. Like most observers, two-time Giro winner Vincenzo Nibali believes that the terms and conditions will be dictated entirely by Pogačar’s approach.

“Oropa is a stage that everybody knows all about and everybody’s legs should be very fresh this early in the Giro, but it’s a difficult climb to interpret,” Nibali told Cyclingnews on Saturday.

“It depends a bit on what Tadej Pogačar wants to do. It’s a climb that suits him a lot, and so we could already see some gaps in the GC. He’s the number one favourite for the race, and a lot of this Giro will depend on how he decides to interpret the race early on.”

Whatever Pogačar’s strategy, the climb to Oropa will also be a significant test for his rivals. Thymen Arensman (Ineos), already an outsider for the podium, slipped out of the reckoning at the first hurdle on the Colle Maddalena. Bardet, too, risks sinking out of the podium hunt if he can’t steady the ship after a choppy display in Turin.

Before stage 1, O’Connor had spoken optimistically of going “toe to toe” with Pogačar. “I think I’m always brave and willing to put myself on the line,” the Australian said in Veneria Reale on Sunday. He didn’t manage to follow Pogačar here, but he limited his losses to 10 seconds ahead of the true test at Oropa on Sunday.

Thomas, for his part, had already downplayed the significance of time won and lost in Turin before the stage got underway, and he, too, will be satisfied to have restricted the damage to 10 seconds plus bonuses. 

“I think Tadej will probably just go for it, but we’ve just got to race our race,” Thomas had shrugged on Saturday morning. “There’ll be a gap or two, but I wouldn’t read too much into a bad day.”

Thomas, O’Connor et al will be braced for another onslaught from Pogačar at Oropa, of course. The Slovenian will not emulate Gianni Bugno, who led the Giro from start to finish in 1990, but he might yet mirror Tony Rominger, who seized the maglia rosa on the second day in 1995 and held it all the way to Milan.

The category 1 ascent of Oropa climbs for 11.8km at an average of 6.2%. The 13% ramp midway up the climb seems to call like a siren to Pogačar, even a rider who does too much too soon at the Giro always runs the risk of running aground. There are plenty of warnings from history, from Hugo Koblet to Alex Zülle to Simon Yates.

“I know he already did a recon of the stage and it’s the first tough stage, but we’ll have to see about the strategy of his team,” Nibali said. “If they take the jersey straight away, it’s a long, long way to defend it all the way to the finish in Rome. Pogačar is really strong, but his team could suffer as a result.”

Eddy Merckx, on the other hand, reckoned that Pogačar might as well as take possession of the maglia rosa early on, given that the weight of controlling the race is likely to fall on his shoulders regardless of whether they’re draped in pink or not.

“In the end, it wouldn’t change much about their tactics,” Merckx told La Gazzetta dello Sport. “The weight of the race would be on him and on UAE Team Emirates in any case. He’s the big favourite, so it’s normal that it will be like that.”

Allies

Pogačar is the most overwhelming favourite the Giro has seen since Alberto Contador lined up for his since-rescinded victory in 2011. On that occasion, Contador fired a shot across the bows of his rivals on the punchy finale to Tropea on stage 8 before seizing the maglia rosa at Mount Etna a day later. 

Nibali, who placed second overall on that Giro after Contador’s disqualification, is not convinced that the comparison between the two races will hold up across three weeks.

“Maybe, but this is a different Giro: it’s a Giro that provides space for riders to recover their strength,” Nibali said. “There aren’t blocks of consecutive mountain days. It’s a very technical Giro, a lot of little difficulties, like the stage in Tuscany with the gravel in the finale. Whatever happens at Oropa, it’s still going to be hard to manage.”

If Pogačar does the anticipated Pogačar things on Sunday, the temptation will be to declare the race already over as a contest, but then the Giro, like Turin, is all about its contradictions. Sometimes, a favourite’s supremacy can work against him. 

Whatever happens at Oropa, the narrative will endure beyond the opening weekend of the race. 

“Tadej is the favourite, and we all know he’s the strongest,” Nibali said. “But he still has one disadvantage at this race – he doesn’t have allies.”

Stage 2 sprints

• Intermediate sprint, km. 93.9
• Intergiro bonus sprint, km. 106.6
• Intermediate sprint, km. 150.1

Stage 2 mountains

• Oasi Zegna (cat. 3), km. 122.7
• Neva (cat 3.), km 137.4
• Finish: Santuario di Oropa (cat. 1), km 161 - 11.8km at 6.2% (13% max)