Giro d'Italia Lombardia stage expected to be a Classic – stage 15 preview

Stage 15 of the Giro d'Italia is expected to be a Classic day of Grand Tour racing, with the 195 km in the hills behind Bergamo covering many of the same climbs as Il Lombardia when the end-of-season race ends in the city. 

With the rain finally expected to stay away, the stage could inspire some aggressive racing.

Bruno Armirail and Groupama-FDJ will try to defend their newly acquired maglia rosa but there will be attacks to get in the break to try to win the stage and perhaps a showdown between Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers), Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma), João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) and anyone else with overall ambitions. 

The riders will also enjoy a deserved second rest day in Bergamo on Monday and so there is no reason to hold back. 

"It looks a tough stage, a hard, hard day before the rest day," Geraint Thomas said, clearly unperturbed to have conceded the maglia rosa to Armirail during stage 14 to Cassano Magnano. 

"It also looks like it's not raining, so everybody is very happy. I think it's the first time it hasn't rained since stage 1 or 2. I think the whole peloton are going to love it."

Roglič is keeping an extremely low profile at the Giro d'Italia, only speaking briefly at stage starts and finishes if he can't slip away. He still has a small bandage on his right knee after his crashes but seems to have recovered well. Stage 15 will perhaps be the first test of his form since last Sunday's Cesena time trial.  

Roglič famously lost precious time during the 2019 Giro d'Italia on a similar 'Il Lombardia' stage near Como, when his team car stopped for a natural break at the moment he needed a bike change. 

Jumbo-Visma will be determined to avoid similar mistakes and are hoping their team strength can be a factor on Saturday and into the third week.

"When you look at the weather of the last two weeks, that's playing a big role," directeur sportif Marc Reef suggested.

"A lot of riders have gotten sick and dropped out and so we were very happy to have eight healthy riders. Guys like Rohan Dennis are growing into the race and the third week, it's going to be hard but we are ready."  

A day of Classic racing deep into a three-week Grand Tour.

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The 195km stage is not a mountain stage but includes 3,600 metres of climbing that could hurt and offer opportunities for the GC contenders to gain time.

The stage hits the 11.6km Valico di Valcava (11.6km at 8%) after just 36km of racing and then rolls up and down the high hills behind Bergamo on twisting country roads. The Selvino (11.1km at 5.6%) and Miragolo San Salvatore (5.2km at 7%) climb up to almost 1,000 metres back-to-back mid-stage before a drop down to the finish area in Bergamo.

A final loop to the east climbs up to Roncola Alta (10km at 6.7%), with a long middle section of the 10km climb at an average of 8.2%. If that doesn't cause any damage, the final kilometres include the steep, cobbled climb up to Bergamo Alta on the hilltop, before the fast descent to the Il Lombardia finish in Bergamo Basso. 

It's a day of Classic racing deep into a three-week Grand Tour.

"It's going to be like a Classic," Ineos Grenadiers directeur sportif Matteo Tosatto predicted to Cyclingnews.

"The Valcava is a high and hard climb, it's probably going to be one of the hardest climbs so far in this Giro. We've got to race like a Classic. It's the rest day the following day and so someone might try to light up the race.

"There will be attacks to go in the break and I suspect a team might ride as a unit and try to shake things up. They might want to make a hard race. The terrain is there to do it, especially in the finale."

Tosatto wouldn't reveal if Ineos Grenadiers will make a move. Thomas no longer has the maglia rosa but the British team appear in control and vigilant. 

"Geraint is in a good place," Tosatto claimed. "The GC is close and so all the big teams are racing as if they have the maglia rosa and are careful about every second. People are waiting because everyone is scared of going all in and losing everything. That perhaps means the last week will be decisive.

"This Giro d'Italia is a waiting game but will explode sooner or later."

Perhaps starting on Sunday.