Tadej Pogačar vs the rest – Our analysis of the top 10 contenders at the Vuelta a España

The first two men's Grand Tours of the season are behind us, with Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar delivering comprehensive victories at the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France, respectively.

The final of cycling's biggest triumvirate of races comes with a trip to Spain via Monaco and France and the 81st edition of the Vuelta a España.

This year, following that opening time trial in Monaco and a trek through the Pyrenees, the race takes a rare heavy focus on Spain's south and east, with no stages at all held in the mountainous north-west. The mountains of the Sierra Nevada won't put off Pogačar, though, with the world champion lining up as heavy favourite to win the red jersey as overall winner.

It's hard to see who exactly can beat the Slovenian, who has dominated this season like nobody else in history – barring Eddy Merckx.

We've nonetheless scoured the start list to find a host of capable GC names. They may not win the race, but they'll certainly be in the mix for the podium and top 10 in Granada. Here are our 10 contenders for the 2026 Vuelta a España.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

This season, the only race Tadej Pogačar has lost was Paris-Roubaix. The Slovenian hasn't raced the Vuelta a España since his neo-pro season in 2019, but he can rest assured that there will be no cobbled sectors standing in his way here.

Pogačar heads to Spain looking to tick off one of the few races missing from his massive palmarès, having raced to third place with two mountain stage wins as a 20-year-old seven years ago.

There appears to be little possibility that he won't succeed in his mission next month. We could be looking at a total domination of La Vuelta, as he wrought on the Giro d'Italia (six stage wins and a 10-minute winning margin) in 2024.

He triumphed at the Tour de France with a 6:26 gap over second place, and realistically there's nobody else here on the level of Remco Evenepoel. With the likes of João Almeida (more on him below), Jay Vine, and Pavel Sivakov supporting him, Pogačar has the strongest team, too. If he can avoid illness and crashes, the Vuelta should be his. (DO)

Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM)

After finishing second overall at the Giro d'Italia, the best rider behind winner Jonas Vingegaard, Felix Gall would have had high hopes for a better result at the Vuelta, but those might have been dashed by the news of Pogačar's arrival.

Gall isn't the flashiest or most talked-about GC rider in the peloton, but really proved himself at the Giro this year, with his steady, considered and consistent riding style working well over three weeks and deliveirng him to his best Grand Tour result yet, adding to the top 10s he's already achieved. He swapped the Tour for the Giro and Vuelta this year and so far it has paid off.

Since the Giro, the Austrian has kept a pretty low profile, keeping his racing load low in favour of training. He only returned a few weeks ago at San Sebastián, where he finished 18th, before heading to the Vuelta a Burgos which he won. Given he's only raced six days since the Giro, we can't really speak too much to his current form, but he's a three-week specialist who has been working towards this race so it's fair to expect that he'll be starting in Monaco very well prepared.

Can he beat Tadej Pogačar? In truth, probably not, but Gall has already proved once this year that he can be 'best of the rest' and he'll be aiming at no less than second overall again in Spain. (MP)

Oscar Onley (Netcompany Ineos)

Scottish racer Oscar Onley was among last season's standout riders, with top fives at the Tour Down Under and UAE Tour leading to third at the Tour de Suisse and fourth at the Tour de France.

He started his 2026 well after a big move to Netcompany Ineos, racing to fourth at the Volta ao Algarve, though much of his season since has been ruined by illnesses and a major crash at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. He was back in the saddle and back on form at the Vuelta a Burgos, though, racing to second place behind Gall as he took a stage win and both mountain and points jerseys.

All is looking good for the 23-year-old, then, and he should enjoy the sharp inclines of the many mountain stages of his Vuelta debut. If he can avoid more bouts of bad luck, he's a real podium contender.

Onley will have the likes of Laurens De Plus and Carlos Rodríguez to help him in the mountains, while Axel Laurance is one to watch in the sprints. (DO)

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)

Tour de France polka dot jersey winner Richard Carapaz confirmed his return to the Vuelta last Thursday, though his intentions for the race aren't 100% clear. Is he going for another GC challenge like his second and fourth places in 2020 and 2024? Or is he hunting stage wins, as he did to great effect with three triumphs in 2022?

Whichever turns out to be the case, Carapaz cannot be ignored as a GC candidate. Last month, he took his Grand Tour stage win tally to 10 with two Alpine victories at the Tour, also soaring to a third Grand Tour mountain classification win of his career.

The Ecuadorian rarely rides two Grand Tours back-to-back, however. In 2021, his podium at the Tour (and gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics) was followed up by an anonymous, abortive Vuelta campaign. The previous year, though, he finished strongly at the Tour before going on to narrowly lose that Vuelta to Primož Roglič.

We may be in for a repeat performance here, but don't be shocked if his mind is set solely on more stage wins, either. (DO)

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

Mattias Skjelmose is opting for the Tour-Vuelta double this year, off the back of sixth overall at the Tour, and depending on how he has recovered from that effort, he may actually be in a better position for the Vuelta. Why is that? Well, because he won't have Juan Ayuso with him this time, causing any GC tug-of-war. Whilst the pair both finished in the top 10 at the Tour, there was a sense by the end that if perhaps they had joined forces for one goal, one of them could have finished higher. But either way, Skjelmose's performances reaffirmed his GC credentials after some hit-and-miss results the last few years.

A Classics-capable climber, the tough and punchy climbs of the Vuelta should suit Skjelmose well, and given he's already finished top 10 in one Grand Tour this year, he should be able to come to this race motivated to go for broke and race aggressively. If it doesn't work and he can't improve on sixth, it won't really dampen his season, but if he can grab time or a stage win that would be a solid reward.

The things that may work against him are the two time trials – though he was actually very impressive in the Tour TT – and the kind of team Lidl-Trek send to this race. Their squad isn't confirmed, but we aren't expecting a super GC-centric line-up, more a group of opportunists, which may affect how much of a concerted overall campaign Skjelmose is able to put together. (MP)

Enric Mas (Movistar)

A rider with six top-six finishes at La Vuelta, including three runner-up spots and a third place, wouldn't normally be this low on our list. But Enric Mas hasn't enjoyed the best year-and-a-half of his career since his most recent Vuelta campaign.

Mas' 2024 podium, behind Roglič and Ben O'Connor, has been followed by a DNF from 18th place at last summer's Tour de France and a 32nd place at May's Giro d'Italia. Highlights of the past two seasons have included podiums at last year's Itzulia Basque Country and Volta a Catalunya.

There have been signs of renewed form recently, though, as Mas raced to fifth overall at the recent Vuelta a Burgos. He was solid throughout the race and finished 41 seconds off the winner, Felix Gall, and so surely he'll be back in the mix here.

He'll race at the head of Movistar in allyship with Cian Uijtdebroeks (more below), the pair supported by a very strong lineup featuring Iván Romeo, Einer Rubio, Pablo Castrillo, Raúl García Pierna, and the retiring Nairo Quintana. (DO)

João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Once upon a time João Almeida was second fiddle to Pogačar at UAE Team Emirates-XRG and would be given practically as much support as the Slovenian in the races where he was leader, but his star has fallen with the rise of Isaac del Toro, and it feels like he has less and less clout these days. Case in point being the fact that, after finishing second overall at the Vuelta last year, Almeida has been demoted back to domestique this year, because Pogačar wants to ride, and Pogačar makes the rules.

Now, we know from the Tour that UAE absolutely can work to win a race and place their luxury domestique on the podium too, but unfortunately, Almeida is looking far from podium form right now. He hasn't finished a stage race since March and he had to miss the Giro as a long, mystery illness derailed his season, and his recent withdrawal from the Tour of Poland hasn't exactly convinced us that his form is returning.

In any other situation, it would be season-saving time for Almeida, and whilst it would be good to end the year with a top 10 or good result, the Portuguese rider probably also has the luxury of 'just' working for Pogačar, if he wants, and knowing that the team's performance won't be based just on how he fares. (MP)

Matthew Riccitello (Decathlon CMA CGM)

US racer Matthew Riccitello has progressed solidly and steadily since turning pro with Israel-Premier Tech in 2023. He finished fourth at the Tour de l'Avenir that year, fifth at the Tour de Suisse in 2024, and then fifth with the young rider's jersey on his Grand Tour debut at last year's Vuelta.

In 2026, Riccitello has taken wins at the Tour de la Provence and Tour du Jura to go with sixth and seventh places at the Volta ao Algarve and Tour de Suisse.

He raced the Tour de France in support of Paul Seixas's GC ambitions, finishing 24th himself and getting stronger in the race's final days in the Alps. Whether he'll carry that form forward to Spain – this will be his first time tackling back-to-back Grand Tours – remains to be seen, though he'll certainly form a formidable pairing with teammate Felix Gall. (DO)

Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar)

Cian Uijtdebroeks is a rider who is definitely in season-redemption territory at the Vuelta. He made his big move to Movistar in search of fast-tracked leadership at the Tour de France, but failed to capitalise this year after illness saw him withdraw in the first week, so he has a lot of questions to answer about what kind of GC rider he is, and if that move away from Visma was really justified.

Before the Tour, his season had been going relatively well, if not mind-blowing, with seventh overall at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes a highlight, but he's still very much in the field of top 10 contenders, rather than serious podium challengers. He's not raced since dropping out of the Tour, so we know very little about how he's performing right now, and will probably only know as the Vuelta develops. With Mas there, a bit of pressure might be off Uijtdebroeks, but the young Belgian does have a lot to prove, and a second Grand Tour failure of the season wouldn't be great for anyone's confidence. (MP)

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Primož Roglič looks set to be at the Vuelta start in Monaco after a crash derailed his preparation, but it's unlikely that he'll be racing for GC.

As a four-time winner of this race, Roglič started the year looking pretty good to break the record and go for five victories, but his stock has gradually fallen as the months have gone on, with the Slovenian struggling to show off his Grand Tour-winning best very often in 2026. The participation of his compatriot and racing foil Pogačar, plus his crash, has lowered his chances ever further, and to be honest even fighting for the podium feels like a big ask right now.

But, as a four-time winner – more times than anyone except joint record-holder Roberto Heras – we can't not include him on this list, and indeed I think it's only fair to include him near the top. It's true that he may be quite bashed up from his crash, but he's been training in the mountains again recently, and let's face it, this is a man who knows how to deal with adversity.

With all the circumstances he's facing, it does unfortunately feel quite unlikely that Roglič will be making it five Vuelta titles this year, but you can be sure that he will give this race his full respect and effort. With uncertainty over his future and his career certainly in its twilight, too, there is a sense that every Grand Tour could be one of Roglič's last.

If there's one Grand Tour where he can pull out a phenomenal ride and add another top 10 or stage win to his storied palmarès, it is his beloved Vuelta. So just don't count him out. (MP)

Honourable mentions

Away from our top 10, there are plenty of other names to consider, including Basque racer Mikel Landa. He'll race his final Grand Tour with Soudal-QuickStep, though this year looks a shadow of the rider he once was. He recently finished 37th at the Vuelta a Burgos and should target stage wins.

Max Poole will hopefully lead the charge for Picnic-PostNL, who have endured a torrid season. The Briton missed last year's Vuelta after being diagnosed with Epstein-Barr virus. His 2026 has been ruined, too, with only seven race days to his name. Expectations will be cool in his first Grand Tour since his 11th place at the 2025 Giro d'Italia.

Once upon a time, Spanish fans could look forward to a host of GC favourites at their home Grand Tour. Carlos Rodríguez was supposed to be the heir to the likes of Mas and Landa, but the 25-year-old's progress has really stalled since a run of four top-10s in a row at his first four Grand Tours. Can the Netcompany Ineos rider rediscover that form here?

There's no doubt that Jarno Widar and Lotto-Intermarché will treat his debut Grand Tour as a learning experience. However, he'll nonetheless be a heavily watched rider following two Giro della Valle d'Aosta wins and a second place behind Paul Seixas at the Tour de l'Avenir.

Santiago Buitrago, who leads the Bahrain Victorious selection, hasn't had much to shout about in 2026, barring a seventh place at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he has finished top 10 at the Tour and Vuelta before. Can he regain that kind of form? (DO)

Jørgen Nordhagen was third at the same Tour de l'Avenir last year and finished fourth at May's Tour de Romandie. He'll be free to ride his own race in the absence of the usual Visma-Lease a Bike GC candidates, Jonas Vingegaard, Sepp Kuss, and Matteo Jorgenson.

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe have Luke Tuckwell in reserve if Roglič isn't at his best. The 22-year-old, a runner-up at the Giro d'Italia Next Gen last year, has impressed several times this season, including sixth in Romandie and second at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, though it's wise to warn against too-high expectations on his Grand Tour debut.

Italian racer Lorenzo Fortunato recently finished 10th at the Vuelta a Burgos and is often there or thereabouts for the top 10-15 at Grand Tours. He'll lead XDS-Astana this time around.

Among the Spanish wildcard teams, Iván Sosa (Equipo Kern Pharma) looks the best bet for a strong ride. The Colombian climber has a host of week-long stage race wins to his name and several standout results this year. He last rode a Grand Tour four years ago, though, and will likely be stage hunting rather than riding for GC.

Finally, we come to a pair of old hands in Groupama-FDJ United's Guillaume Martin and NSN's Jan Hirt. Like Landa, their best years are behind them, but both are capable of riding to the fringes of the top 10, with Hirt having finished 12th at this year's Giro. (DO)

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