Last year the Willunga stage of the Women's Tour Down Under was the decider but this year, with the climb coming on stage 2, the ground gained on the famous ascent could be quickly forgotten after Sunday's hot and demanding stage in Stirling.
EF Education-Oatly's Noemi Rüegg was spectacular on Willunga, matching the surges of favourites Niamh Fisher-Black (Lidl-Trek) and Neve Bradbury (Canyon-SRAM-zondacrypto) before launching a searing attack in the final kilometre to steal the stage win and general classification lead.
However, the Swiss champion faces five laps of an Ardennes Classics-style circuit with hardly a flat metre across 106 kilometres and temperatures soaring to nearly 40°C.
Last year, the Stirling stage was only three laps and was won by climber Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig in a reduced 29-rider uphill sprint finish. This year, with two trips up Willunga Hill in their legs and five laps in Stirling, the lead group is destined to be much smaller.
"Tomorrow is going to be a really hard stage," Rüegg said after her victory. "It's also going to be super hot again, so I think we just have to stay calm and in control, follow the big breakaways. I think the stage should suit me really well. It's always up and down. No rest. So I'll just try to keep staying with my team.
"I think we have it under control. We proved that we are really a strong team and if we stick together, then we can do great things."
EF Education-Oatly do have a strong team, but they're also up against several equally powerful squads who have come away empty-handed in the first two stages of the opening WorldTour race.
Lidl-Trek went all in for Niamh Fisher-Black and Amanda Spratt but a crash for the Kiwi dulled her edge in what was an extremely aggressive final climb up Willunga.
Spratt expects the peloton to pour the pressure on EF Education-Oatly on Sunday.
"I think it's a it's a hard course to defend a jersey on," Spratt said. "I think that will be quite difficult. I expect to see very aggressive riding. I'm sure we're going to be aggressive, and I think it's going to be really exciting. I certainly think the gaps are not huge on GC so I don't think it's really set in stone yet."
As it stands, the top three in the GC are rather unexpected names. Second is Silke Smulders (Liv-AlUla-Jayco), who is 15 seconds down on Rüegg in the standings, while Norwegian champion Mie Bjørndal Ottestad (Uno-X Mobility) sits in third at 33 seconds after taking the sprint for third on Willunga from Bradbury.
The motivation is high for Smulders, who wants to take the overall victory for her Australian team on home soil.
"It's quite close still, and I think I had also quite a nice gap to the third place. The team is riding really well, and in the final, we did it so good. It was amazing to feel how they rode and believed in me. So I think anything is possible for tomorrow."
Ottestad, who started the 2024 season with an overall victory in the Tour de Normandie Féminin, is also expecting to battle for the GC in the Tour Down Under.
"I think tomorrow's stage is pretty hard, so I think the GC is still pretty open," Ottestad told Cyclingnews. "I think all the teams are eager to race hard tomorrow also. So it will be interesting to see. I will at least fight for my position."
GC still wide open ahead of final stage
Not far down the overall standings behind Rüegg are aggressive riders like Polish champion Dominika Wlodarczyk (UAE Team ADQ) at 36 seconds. Justine Ghekiere (AG Insurance-Soudal), Elise Chabbey (FDJ-SUEZ) and Bradbury are a single second further in arrears, while Spratt is at 40 seconds and Fisher-Black 46 seconds down.
Ella Simpson (St Michel-Preference Home-Auber 93), who made the lead group heading into the climb but finished 1:40 down on Rüegg, noted that major teams have yet to score a stage win and will be highly motivated to change that.
"I think tomorrow is going to be super aggressive," Simpson said. "I think people will be disappointed with how today panned out, and we're going to see teams going left, right and centre to try and make a change to that GC. So yeah, tomorrow is going to be hard."
FDJ-SUEZ is a prime example, having raced aggressively in the first two stages but they are yet to find the top step. Their top GC rider, Chabbey, may not be the team's only option on Sunday, according to new recruit Ally Wollaston.
"I think we can race with a lot less pressure tomorrow," Wollaston told Cyclingnews. "That's one of the reasons why I chose this team - we race very aggressively and with a lot of passion. I think we have a real collective buy-in to race really aggressively tomorrow and take on the race and not be spectators of the race. I think we have not just Elise but a lot of cards to play tomorrow."
In the first two stages, the breakaways have been limited to one or two riders, with Wollaston going on the attack before the first Willunga ascent to join solo leader Alli Anderson (ARA Australian Cycling Team). Wollaston's sprint for second was upstaged by solo winner Daniek Hengeveld (Ceratizit-WNT).
With everything still to play for on the final stage in Stirling, that most certainly will not be the case. WorldTour teams like Canyon-SRAM, FDJ-SUEZ, Lidl-Trek, and UAE Team ADQ aren't in the position to protect a podium position and could well come together in a breakaway to try to depose Rüegg from the top step.
"I think we have a lot of riders that can do really strong rides tomorrow," Bradbury said. "I think it's good for us to go on the front foot and put pressure on the other teams, and make it an exciting race."
Her teammate Chloé Dygert, who has been on the attack in both stages so far, is undoubtedly going to do the same on Sunday.
"I'm really looking forward to tomorrow. I really like the terrain. But again, it's day three of a stage race and it's the first race of the year, so all of us are going to have tired legs. I think tomorrow is going to be who has the most left in the tank. We're just going to race it hard and then try to pull it off.
Whatever happens, the final stage in Stirling is bound to be a cracker.
