'When he starts somewhere, it is to try to win' – Why Tadej Pogačar can win Paris-Roubaix

UAE Team Emirates-XRG directeur sportif Fabio Baldato has shed light on the process behind Tadej Pogačar's decision to race Paris-Roubaix. 

The Italian, who raced Roubaix 12 times during his career, confirmed that the final decision was made just this week after Pogačar convinced or forced his team to let him race on the cobbles of northern France. 

The rumours that Pogačar could race Paris-Roubaix begn in February when the Slovenian, accompanied by Baldato and teammate Tim Wellens, rode the final 20 sectors of the race, including the Trouée d'Arenberg. 

Pogačar twice rode the junior version of Paris-Roubaix, finishing 30th in 2015 and then 13th in 2016. 

Speaking to Het Laatste Nieuws, Baldato said that Pogačar "was able to convince the bosses" to let him make his debut at the Hell of the North.

"The final decision was this week. It was always his wish to do it. It's a race he always loved. I think in the end he was able to convince the bosses. He wanted to do it, so why not?" Baldato said.

"It was always his dream to ride there. Of course, you're always a little bit scared. We tried to calm him down, but that was impossible."

Baldato, who has worked at UAE since 2021 and is a key part of the team's Classics staff, said that Pogačar was "really excited" during the February recon, adding that the world champion was laughing at the end, in contrast to Wellens being "completely destroyed".

He said that Pogačar is, without a doubt, racing to win at Roubaix, while acknowledging that might not happen this year.

"When Tadej starts somewhere, it is to try to win," Baldato said. 

"At the Tour of Flanders, he was also close right away, then the year after, he won. That's also possible now.

"For him, it's possible to win right away – or after two or three years. Others have to ride Paris-Roubaix 10 times before they can claim victory.

"Every day can be risky," he noted when asked about a possible crash disrupting the remainder of his season. "From the moment he decided to go, he goes with full concentration. The team will support him 100%. You go like that, or you don't go."

Hayman: At least in Roubaix, he may have less chance of winning

Several former Paris-Roubaix winners have given their opinion on Pogačar's decision to race on the cobbles.

2016 winner Mathew Hayman, now a director at Jayco-AlUla, and two-time winner Marc Madiot, manager at Groupama-FDJ, both spoke to L'Equipe. 

The Australian said that, luckily for his rivals, Pogačar is less of a favourite than he is at most other races.

"Whether it's the World Championships, the Tour de France, or Milan-San Remo, which he probably changed forever, he just wants to race," Hayman said.

"We sometimes tear our hair out as we don't know how to beat him, but at least in Roubaix, he may have less chance of winning than in other races."

Hayman said it would be tough for Pogačar to beat riders with more raw power in the race, which features no hills where he might launch race-winning attacks. And, as we saw at Milan-San Remo last weekend, outsprinting more powerful riders such as Mathieu van der Poel may be beyond him once again.

"Against guys like Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel, with their extra kilos, their power… If he arrives at the velodrome with someone of this calibre, it will be difficult to sprint against them," Hayman said.

He then admitted that he would be worried about Pogačar crashing if he was UAE manager Mauro Gianetti.

"If I were Mauro, I'd be scared too," he said. 

"But falls can happen anywhere. We saw it last year in many different races on normal roads. But it's an increased risk going into a Classic like this."

Madiot, meanwhile, said that "of course" Pogačar can win Paris-Roubaix, dismissing concerns about his climber's build.

"Of course he can win it. He has the qualities, he's not a broomstick; he's not that small," Madiot said. "I wasn't very heavy. I was 67kg when I won.

"Roubaix isn't about size, anyway. If he's mentally ready, and I'm sure he's doing everything he can to be, he'll be in the game."

The Frenchman called Pogačar "a real rider", adding that UAE had taken the correct decision in letting him race Roubaix.

"He's right, it's his decision, and if that's the case, that's great," he said. "If he wants to go, let him go. Because he's a rider, a real rider.

"I prefer other riders, but you have to give him credit for one thing: he's a racer. I don't know if he'll win Roubaix, but who cares."