After a week in the Tirreno-Adriatico's best young rider white jersey, Juan Ayuso is expected to ascend the general classification and take the leader's blue jersey from Filippo Ganna on stage 6 mountain finish.
The UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider finished second to Ganna in the opening 11.5k time trial in Lido di Camaiore and has been waiting for the Italian to crack ever since.
The heavy rain on stages 3 and 4 has turned Tirreno-Adriatico into a battle of survival but now stage 6 from Cartoceto to Frontignano will reveal who the overall contenders really are, and if Ayuso can live up to the billing of favourite for final victory.
Though the stage is short compared to most days of this year's tough Tirreno-Adriatico route, the 163km of racing will be another day in the Apennine foothills.
There are two climbs in the final 100km and then the 7.7km climb to the Frontignano finish at 1327 metres. The average gradient of 7.8% is deceiving, as the final two kilometres near the hilltop are at only 6.4% but the gradient from 5.8km to 11.7km to go is a harder 8.3%.
22-year-old Ayuso is only 22 seconds down on Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) in the GC. He leads Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) by seven seconds, and Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) by 12 seconds.
Laurens De Plus (Ineos Grenadiers), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) and Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep) are at least 30 second down on Ayuso and so will have to attack early on the final climb if they want any chance of climbing the GC.
Ayuso is fatigued after the tough days in the rain but knows victory is within grasp. He has a strong UAE Team Emirates-XRG team that controls the race and the pace on the final climb until the race to the finish begins.
"Tomorrow was originally the race 'D-Day', the one we'd been waiting for all week. But with so many days of bad weather that have been much tougher than expected, it has been a case of 'get through as best we can'. We've actually had a lot of very hard days already," Ayuso explained.
"Tomorrow is the day where we can make a difference on GC and hopefully I can end it as race leader. We'll have to drop Ganna, and seeing how he's going, we'll have to make it really hard for that to happen."
Aysuo opted to ride a controlled final climb on stage 5, going with the late attacks over the top of the Monterolo climb.
"The objective was to get through it," he said. "It was a very explosive finale and we didn't want the group to bust apart and then for things to get out of control.
"We're all finished in the same time, so we got through it. Now let's see what's happening tomorrow."
