The Tour de France leader's yellow jersey sits on Tadej Pogačar's shoulders, but Jonas Vingegaard will believe the momentum of this Tour is with him as the race reaches the Pyrenees. The defending champion will reach the foot of the Col du Tourmalet on Saturday in third place overall, 1:14 off Pogačar, but buoyed by his stage victory at Le Lioran in midweek.
"We go into a terrain that suits me a bit more, so we're looking forward to the upcoming days," Vingegaard said in Pau after stage 13, where he finished in the front group at the end of a fraught day that saw the peloton splinter at various points on the road south from Agen.
"I feel very good. Today ended up being a good day for us, we didn't lose any time. Now hopefully we can recover for tomorrow and then we'll see."
Recovery has been the motif of Vingegaard's Tour to this point. His prospects of chasing a third straight title seemed slim when he suffered a punctured lung and broken collarbone in a mass crash at Itzulia Basque Country in early April. "I really believed I was going to die three months ago," Vingegaard said earlier this week.
Visma-Lease a Bike only confirmed Vingegaard's Tour participation ten days before the race, but he gave an early indication of his fitness by going toe to toe with Pogačar on the San Luca on stage 2. Although Vingegaard conceded ground to Pogačar at Valloire and in the stage 7 time trial, his startling display at Le Lioran, when he somehow closed a 35-second gap to the yellow jersey, had the feel of a turning point.
Some observers, mind, had been expecting a downturn in Vingegaard's performances in the second half of the Tour given his disrupted preparation. He didn't race between Itzulia Basque Country and the Grand Départ. Precise details about his preparation were sparingly communicated until he joined his teammates for a pre-Tour camp in Isola 2000, but it seems clear that Vingegaard spent less time training at altitude than in 2022 or 2023.
"Jonas Vingegaard might go well at first, but he'll pay the bill eventually, otherwise I don't understand anything about cycling anymore," five-time winner Bernard Hinault said before the Tour.
A year ago, Vingegaard seemed to be the Eliud Kipchoge of cycling, suddenly and stunningly overwhelming Pogačar in the final third of their marathon duel to claim an emphatic overall victory. Visma-Lease a Bike directeur sportif Arthur van Dongen conceded that Vingegaard's ability to stay the course at this year's Tour is rather less certain, despite exceeding his expectations to this point.
"We'll see how he feels at the end of a Grand Tour without, in theory, the best preparation like he had in the past – altitude, Dauphiné, altitude," Van Dongen said in Agen on Friday. "That's also a question mark – how fresh he will be in the last week? But for now, it's OK."
The Pyrenean doubleheader will reveal more. Saturday's short stage takes in the Col du Tourmalet and a summit finish at Pla d'Adet, while stage 15 is a longer haul with another demanding finale atop Plateau de Beille.
"In theory, it will be more for Jonas because he has less kilograms [than Pogačar – ed.], but it's also about the legs and how you feel in the race," Van Dongen said.
"First, we will see what happens on Saturday and then we will plan for Sunday. But the tough stages in the third week will be very, very important. I think those days will make the biggest difference."
Team Visma-Lease a Bike
While Vingegaard's display at Le Lioran suggested he has the condition to push Pogačar all the way to Nice – "He is in the form of his life," the yellow jersey said – it's rather less clear if he has a team to help him do it. Visma arrived at this Tour, after all, without several of their planned selection, with Steven Kruijswijk and Dylan van Baarle forced out by injury and Sepp Kuss ruled out by illness.
Their limitations, at least relative to UAE, were exposed on the Galibier on stage 4 and again at Puy Mary on stage 11 when Vingegaard was shorn of his teammates by the forcing of Pogačar's guard. In 2022, Vingegaard could lean on Kuss, Primož Roglič and a supersonic Wout van Aert to put Pogačar under pressure. This time out, Pogačar has the more reliable supporting cast, Juan Ayuso's abandon due to COVID-19 notwithstanding.
"We are not afraid, but it's true that we will miss some special key riders in our tactics, like Steven Kruijswijk or Sepp Kuss," Van Dongen said. "We will miss them a lot but still in the end it will be most of the time a fight between the big favourites, between Jonas, Tadej and Remco [Evenepoel]."
Matteo Jorgenson, second at the Critérium du Dauphiné last month, looks to be Vingegaard's most reliable support in the mountains, though the American was relatively subdued on the Puy Mary in the face of UAE's onslaught. "He was dropped a bit too early two days ago for his own feeling, but it was maybe just a bad day," Van Dongen said. "But he can be important for Jonas, to support him as long as possible."
Two years ago, Vingegaard forged his Tour victory with his team's offensive on the Galibier, while in 2023, he built his challenge around the Combloux time trial and the mighty Col de la Loze in week three.
This time out, the playbook seems a little more ad hoc. Visma's overarching idea, it seems, is to keep Vingegaard in the hunt until the arduous final troika of stages next week, when summit finishes at Isola 2000 and the Col de la Couillole are followed by the last day time trial to Nice.
"That's a lot of theory, but first we have to do this weekend and then do the stages next week before the time trial," Van Dongen said. "There's still a lot coming up, so it's too early to predict, but in the time trial, we can see big differences. The parcours is difficult and after three weeks, well, we already have the experience with Primož on the Planche des Belles Filles… Other rules count then."
