Four seconds, ten seconds, 12 seconds - even 15 seconds doesn't sound like much when it comes to WorldTour stage racing. But the Tour Down Under general classification margins are as far apart as they are close ahead of the penultimate stage to Willunga.
Javier Romo (Movistar) is an untested GC leader, having only secured his first WorldTour win at the end of a punchy stage 3 to Uraidla.
Romo's previous eight-second lead over last year's Tour Down Under runner-up Jhonatan Narvaez (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) was halved when the Ecuadorian sprinted to third on Friday and earned a four-second time bonus.
Friday's stage in Victor Harbor confirmed Narvaez's 2024 performance here, when he powered to third on Willunga behind Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNl) and eventual winner Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech), then followed that up with second the following day on Mount Lofty. It's clear that Narvaez can sprint as fast as he can climb, making him the biggest threat to Romo's lead.
With no high winds and relatively reasonable temperatures expected on Saturday, the stage will likely be tightly controlled by the WorldTour teams at the top of the rankings. That would mean the race would be decided in a single massive push up one of Australia's most famous climbs, at the end of the 145.7km stage 5.
Movistar had no trouble keeping stage 4's breakaway in check for Romo, and UAE Team Emirates-XRG, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, Ineos Grenadiers and Lidl-Trek have been attentive in protecting their GC positions for Narvaez (second at four seconds), Finn Fisher-Black (fourth at 10 seconds) Bastien Tronchon (fifth at 12 seconds), Magnus Sheffield (sixth at 15 seconds) and Albert Philipsen (seventh at 15 seconds), respectively.
But there are more riders chasing Romo, Narvaez et al. There are a dozen riders in the group at 15 seconds, and 11 more within one minute including defending champion Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech) and pre-race favourite Luke Plapp (Jayco-AlUla).
Other names up there include Onley in 13th, the underrated Thomas Gloag (Visma-Lease a Bike) in 15th, XDS Astana's Sergio Higuita, and dark horse Afonso Eulálio (Bahrain Victorious).
How the race can be won
The time gaps are so tight that Narvaez only needs either to snatch a few intermediate sprint bonuses (unlikely given Movistar's strength) or take finish-line bonuses atop Willunga Hill to tie on time with Romo. Given Narvaez's superior finishing positions on stages 1-4, on a hypothetical tiebreaker, the UAE rider would win overall.
However, there is still danger lurking behind the top two. Lidl-Trek have Patrick Konrad in third at 10 seconds and three other riders in the top 16 overall, giving the team plenty of cards to play. Most notable is the talented young Dane Philipsen, currently leading the best young rider classification and seventh overall at 15 seconds. The team have two other riders, Andrea Bagioli and Bauke Mollema also at 15 seconds. so they have the numbers to play a tactical game.
Sports director Kim Andersen confirmed to Cyclingnews that the team would race to protect Philipsen on Saturday. "We have seen in training that Philipsen is the strongest [of the team]," he said. "He will fight the whole way."
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe are next in line with Fisher-Black in fourth at 10 seconds, tied on time with Konrad. He currently is behind Konrad in the count-back, so will need to gain time to land on the podium.
UAE sports director Fabio Baldato explained before stage 4 it would be unlikely riders go for time bonuses because rival teams could control them. In the end, Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla) and William Lecerf (Soudal-Quickstep) gained bonuses to move up a few spots to 18th and 21st.
The contenders will have to withstand the attacks on Wickham Hill after 21.5km of racing and then will have over 100km before the first ascent of Willunga Hill. In the women's stage last week, the climb split the peloton but the contenders saved their bullets for the final trip up.
It's likely to be the same in the men's peloton for several reasons: the level of the riders is super high - the biggest factor that has changed since before the pandemic - the stage is relatively short, and the conditions are not hard enough to punish them.
With seconds to play for at the top of Willunga, a contender not named Narvaez or Romo will have to really send it to get to the top step.
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