Heading into the final rest day of the Tour de France four years ago, Geraint Thomas enjoyed a lead of almost two minutes over anybody else, a sizable cushion as the race headed into the Pyrenees.
Back then, the Welshman eased to victory in Paris, besting Tom Dumoulin by 1:51 at the end of three weeks of racing. This time around, however, Thomas will be racing into stage 16 facing a similar deficit – and then some – as he looks to do battle against race leader Jonas Vingegaard and second-placed Tadej Pogačar in the coming days.
Speaking at the Ineos Grenadiers rest day press conference in Carcassonne, Thomas, who is 2:43 off yellow, said that he expects a huge battle between the top two as the race heads to the Pyrenees for three vital stages.
"As we saw yesterday, Vingegaard had a little crash, and COVID is still rife – well not rife but I heard there were two COVID positives from those tests we did," Thomas said. "So that all comes into play as well.
"But purely from a racing point of view, I think Pogačar is - we've got that steep last 3km of the climb tomorrow, downhill to the finish. I don't think it's too technical, but if you have 5-10 seconds over the top – it just depends on the numbers, combinations – I can just see that being attacking.
"And then the next two days I think they'll be attacking the hell out of each other. I'd assume Jonas will cover him and then try and give a psychological blow at the end and try to gap Pogačar. The hardest stage will probably be the last of those three days. I think it will be, no matter how it looks after whatever the second day is on Wednesday, I think it can all change on that last day in the Pyrenees because that's a super hard day.
"It will be exciting to watch for everyone at home, maybe not trying to follow them."
As for he and his team's strategy for taking the fight to the top two over the trio of mountain stages, Thomas said that they've just got to keep believing, noting that he can just get to Paris as quick as he can. Beyond that, what will be, will be, he said.
"It's certainly going to be difficult because there's two incredibly strong riders in front of me, not just one. But you've got to keep believing, and as a team we're going to hopefully try and make the most of anything we can and keep racing the best we can.
"Basically, chatting to Steve [Cummings, Ineos DS] the other day, we've been talking about getting from A to B from the start to the top of climbs as quickly as we can. Basically, we'll just try and get to Paris as quickly as we can, and that's all we can do, really. [As for] Jonas and Tadej, if we don't pass them, we don't, and that's that."
A stronger Ineos Grenadiers
Thomas noted that Dani Martínez – who entered the Tour as Ineos co-leader – is feeling better after a spell of bad form earlier in the race, and also said that Jonathan Castroviejo is on the mend after an illness.
Those two riders, as well as fifth-placed Adam Yates and ninth-placed Tom Pidcock, could prove to be key in taking the fight to the weakened Jumbo-Visma and UAE Team Emirates teams in the final week.
Thomas said that his own team are in better shape than they were a week ago – that contrasts with Jumbo, who lost Primož Roglič and Steven Kruijswijk on Sunday, and UAE, who are down key climber George Bennett.
"Compared to start of the second week, we're definitely in a better position health-wise with those two," Thomas said of Martínez and Castroviejo. "And obviously the Alpe d'Huez stage win with Tom was great for the team.
"I felt like I was, to be honest, feeling good all the way through, but there's just no point in me trying to match the explosivity of Vingegaard and Pogačar really. When they attack like they do on those climbs like this, a lot better for me to just ride a bit more steady and get back to them because at the end of the day on Alpe d'Huez especially I knew they wouldn't really carry on, but when I could see them stopping I sort of backed off a bit and took a bit more time to go back in.
"I guess the worst day for me was probably Mende – just the climb didn't really suit me the best, but still I was feeling OK and still went up there pretty quick. Obviously, the time to the yellow jersey has doubled which isn't ideal, but at the same time, I think we're still in a good place."
As well as looking up at the two men above him in the general classification, Thomas will also be looking backwards at Romain Bardet, who lies 18 seconds back, as well as to Nairo Quintana and David Gaudu, who are within two minutes of the podium.
He said, however, that while he'll have to keep an eye on them, he's confident of staying ahead of the chasing pack, even if Pogačar and Vingegaard are another matter
"Obviously the guys behind, you've got to keep an eye on them for sure. But I think with the TT I'm confident that I can get some decent time on those guys," Thomas said.
"But yeah with Tadej, it's hard isn't it? He's incredible. Sure, he cracked one day already but if they continue to race full gas attacking you never know what could happen, so we'll see how that goes."
