Paris-Roubaix race organiser Thierry Gouvenou has predicted a close battle between Tadej Pogačar and his rivals in his debut in the Hell of the North, arguing that the 55.3 kilometres of pavé itself will be one of the biggest challenges for the Tour of Flanders winner.
Speaking at the traditional recon of the cobbled sectors of the Paris-Roubaix route on the Tuesday before the race, Gouvenou said that Pogačar's mere participation in his rainbow jersey was a huge moment for Paris-Roubaix history. The previous defending World Champion to do so was Greg LeMond in 1991.
At the same time, Gouvenou argued that riding successfully on the 30 sectors of cobbles themselves were top of the list of Pogačar's challenges, and "only after that" should he start to think about how to beat his rivals.
"Pogačar is really dominating racing right now, but we don't know how he'll go in Paris-Roubaix," Gouvenou told Cyclism'actu.
"Can you win Roubaix without having won it before? If we look at the statistics, then no…on the other hand, with him, you never know.
"He's knocking on the door of the legends of cycling, he has the grandeur of an Eddy-Merckx and he wants to add this Monument to his palmares. For the moment, nothing can resist him."
So far in the 21st century, only one other rider has won Paris-Roubaix on his debut - Sonny Colbrelli in the COVID-delayed edition of 2021. But if that was a major surprise, Pogačar's track record this spring and most recently the way he demolished the opposition in the Tour of Flanders make him a standout favourite.
However, Gouvenou argued that Pogačar's key rival, at least initially in what is the 122nd edition of Paris-Roubaix "will be the cobbles themselves, and it will be interesting to gauge how he goes on these formidable 55 kilometres of pavé.
"Only after that should he look out for his rivals, with riders in top shape like Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)" - the winner of Paris-Roubaix in 2024 and 2023 - "Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers), Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and a Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) who's on the way back up."
"It's a hugely promising line-up, to the point where you could argue that it'll be the craftiest of them all" - rather than the one with top form - "who ends up winning Paris-Roubaix."
The approach to Arenburg
Gouvenou also explained in some detail about how the organisers had overhauled the approach road to the much-feared Trouée d'Arenberg sector in an attempt to limit the speed, for the second year running.
"It was a request from the riders' association last year to slow things down, it used to be a real sprint and the peloton would come in at over 55kph," he observed to Cyclism'Actu.
"It's true it was a very scary part of the course and I took their request seriously. Last year the request came through very late, but it [the solution] wasn't ideal.
"We had a 'Plan B', but we needed time to put it into place. What we've done is clean up an old approach road that allows us to reach Arenberg from a different direction."
As a result, Gouvenou explained, come Sunday the riders will have to tackle four right-angle corners in the last 600 metres, resulting in an estimated drop of speed to around 35kph as well as stretching out the peloton. "That way we won't have eight riders all coming onto the sector at exactly the same time," he said.
As for Pogačar's participation, Gouvenou underlined that regardless of how he performed on such daunting challenges as the Arenberg, the simple presence of last year's Tour winner on the startline represented a landmark moment for the race. As Gouvenou put it, "We've been waiting for the last Tour de France champion for 34 years… and voilà, it's happening in 2025!"
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