With two consecutive stage wins by Mischa Bredewold, SD Worx-Protime have maintained their perfect record of winning all eight stages of the Itzulia Women so far, spanning three editions since 2022.
The final stage of the 2024 edition sees the Dutch super team in the driver's seat with four riders placed well in the general classification, but the other teams are raring to wrest the txapela, the traditional Basque winner's trophy, from their heads.
Bredewold has a lead of 14 seconds on Juliette Labous (DSM-Firmenich PostNL) and 15 seconds on Mavi García (Liv-AlUla-Jayco), mainly due to bonus seconds for her two stage victories. Élise Chabbey (Canyon-SRAM) is fourth overall at 18 seconds before the next SD Worx-Protime rider, Demi Vollering at 19 seconds.
The Dutch team also has Swiss champion Marlen Reusser in eighth place at 27 seconds while Niamh Fisher-Black is one of 25 riders who are 29 seconds behind, giving them four cards to play on the final stage. Only Liv-AlUla-Jayco have similar strength in numbers as Caroline Andersson, Ella Wyllie, and Urška Žigart all sit at 29 seconds in addition to García.
By contrast, Labous has no well-placed teammates, but on the other hand, her team will not have to weigh its options and can throw its full support behind the Frenchwoman. Movistar Team have sixth-placed Olivia Baril at 21 seconds and Arlenis Sierra right behind her in seventh place at 23 seconds.
FDJ-SUEZ' Évita Muzic is ninth overall at 28 seconds, with Léa Curinier at 29 seconds. Lidl-Trek still have three riders in striking distance with Shirin van Anrooij, Amanda Spratt, and Isabella Holmgren, but like Laboral Kutxa-Fundación Euskadi with Ane Santesteban, Yurani Blanco, and Usoa Ostolaza, they will have to go on the attack if they want to win the race overall.
Mendizorrotz the decisive climb
The final stage includes three classified climbs and several unclassified hills. The first half of the 114.9-kilometre stage is an almost-continuous up-and-down while the second half is more flat but includes the hardest climb of the day.
The famous Jaizkibel climb crests after 42.6km and is classified as a first-category climb. It will be crucial for Valentina Cavallar (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) in her quest to win the polka-dot jersey: If she can be first over the Jaizkibel and the third-category Gurutze climb, she is unreachable in the mountain classification and only has to finish the stage to win the QOM jersey – but this is easier said than done.
After Gurutze, an intermediate sprint at the finish line in Donostia after 75.5km offers valuable bonus seconds before the race closes in on the Mendizorrotz climb. The second-category ascent is 4.1km long with an average gradient of 7.3%, but the climb starts much steeper as the first 1.8km are unrelenting with an average gradient of 11.3%, maxing out at 19%.
Once this wall – known as the Murgil Tontorra in the Clásica San Sebastián – is done, the remaining 2.3km are easier but offer an opportunity to extend any gaps opened on the steep part. From the top of the climb, there are 28.5km to the finish in Donostia, most of it almost completely flat, with another intermediate sprint 12km from the line.
On paper, this run-in should give dropped riders enough time to return to the front, as has happened on the two previous stages. Much will depend on how many and which riders are still together after the gruelling climb: The smaller the group, the more likely it is that there is a common commitment to keep the move going, while a larger group is prone to fall victim to indecision and infighting.
On balance, though, it appears unlikely that Bredewold will be able to come back and win yet another stage to equal Vollering's 2022 record. Instead, the final stage will probably be decided between the strongest climbers and punchers such as Vollering, Labous, García, Chabbey, and Van Anrooij.
