A late change in the weather forecast for Paris-Roubaix could well now see dry, warm conditions for both races this weekend, although overnight rain showers could render the cobblestones more slippery for the men's event on Sunday.
Earlier this week wet conditions had been forecast for Sunday's Paris-Roubaix, but that has now changed to expectations of much drier weather during the race itself, with any rain only falling on Saturday night.
Paris-Roubaix Femmes is expected to be dry throughout, with temperatures rising to on Saturday afternoon in northern France to up to a very warm 23C. Factor in a crosswind throughout the latter part of the day, too, and a fast race can be expected.
“The cobblestones were dry and they will probably be dry before the race. It’s nice to feel that again," Marianne Vos (Visma-Lease a Bike) said after her race recon on Friday.
However, the combination of overnight rain and then dry weather Sunday may not be ideal for the men's race, Belgian newspaper Nieuwsblad pointed out on Saturday morning.
"Slightly wet cobblestones are often the most dangerous," Johan Museeuw, the three-times former winner told the Belgian newspaper. "If it really rains, the dirt washes off the cobblestones, but if they are slightly damp, they become slippery."
There was also concern of dustclouds coming in from the Sahara on southerly winds overnight, adding to the slipperiness of the cobbles, as well as a phenomenon potentially sparked by the overnight wet weather, which Nieuwsblad defined as 'Dangerous Puddles'. Such are the puddles' capacity for creating additional problems for the riders on the pavé, that the newspaper felt it worth dedicating them a whole separate section of its Paris-Roubaix weather update report.
“If there are puddles, riders have to swerve and they can’t go to the sides as much," cycling analyst and former Classics specialist Sep Vanmarcke told the newspaper.
"Riders who do ride through the puddles are taking risks. Wet corners that have to be taken slowly are an advantage for riders like [Wout] van Aert and [Mathieu] van der Poel.”
25kph tailwinds and then crosswinds are also expected Sunday, shifting from south to west or southwest, potentially making for another fast start early on but then with riders already scattered across the sectors of pavé, perhaps having less effect on the race outcome as the day progresses.
However, spring weather in northern Europe is notoriously unpredictable and should the rain finally put in an appearance Sunday or the overnight showers be very heavy ones, it could be the first muddy Paris-Roubaix since 2021 when the race was held in October because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
That year, Sonny Colbrelli won a chaotic Paris-Roubaix in his debut, besting Florian Vermeersch and Van der Poel in a three-man sprint.
While most pundits and fans believe that lightweight climbers like Pogačar would struggle in cold and rain, he has shown multiple times that he can be at his best in the worst conditions.
He won stage 16 of the Giro d'Italia last year in terrible weather, soloed to victory in the Volta a Catalunya on one stage in similarly dire conditions and won a stage of the Vuelta a España in his neo-pro year in 2019 in rain, too. Furthermore, Pogačar has dabbled in cyclocross and has shown excellent bike handling abilities in races like Strade Bianche, too.
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