2018 Tour de France champion Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) has no doubts that Tadej Pogačar will not only ride a strong Paris-Roubaix debut but that the Slovenian could even win it on the first try.
Only a handful of riders have succeeded at combining top performances at Paris-Roubaix and triumphing in the Tour de France but Thomas is one of them. A six-time participant in Paris-Roubaix, with seventh in 2014 being his best result, as well as being a winner of the Junior Paris-Roubaix back in 2004, Thomas has also been victorious in E3 Harelbeke, as well as getting two top ten finishes in the Tour of Flanders.
So if it is fair to say that the cobbled Classics hold no secrets for him, Thomas has also finished on a Tour de France podium with Pogačar in 2022 and at the Giro d'Italia in 2024. So he has seen first-hand on numerous occasions what the Slovenian can achieve in stage racing, too.
Thomas also praised Pogačar for simply wanting to take part in Paris-Roubaix, saying it was great for the sport that a Tour de France winner like the Slovenian was willing to participate in a Monument widely viewed as the most arduous one-day race of them all.
"He can do what he wants, it's great to see him keen to do all sorts of races, racing in a different style," Thomas told Cyclingnews at the stage 4 start of the Volta a Catalunya. "I'm looking forward to seeing him perform."
"He has the engine [for Paris-Roubaix]. Some of the other boys could be heavier favourites, [Mathieu] van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Pippo [Filippo Ganna], these bigger guys who are more built for the cobbles. But Pog's Pog."
"It's great for everyone to see, it adds another element to the race and gives us all something to think about and something extra to watch."
In a race like Paris-Roubaix with virtually no climbing, Pogačar's light build will not help him compared to a cobbled Spring Classic with hills like the Tour of Flanders - which Pogačar won in 2023 - when taking on his rivals, Thomas said. However, other questions will tip the balance back towards a victory for the Slovenian.
"He has the power in the legs, and that's the main thing. The flatter roads weigh more in his rivals' favour," Thomas said. "So that's more suited to them, but he'll be able to perform, all the same."
As for whether he can win it in 2025 despite his lack of experience in Roubaix, Thomas is convinced that is more than a possibility. "He can just drop straight in. For sure he can do it. You need a bit of luck, be in good position and there are no unfortunate mechanicals or punctures, things like that…"
"But if that all goes smoothly and he's looked after by his team in the first half of the race and those sectors, then when it comes down to the second part when it's more about strength and less about positioning, for sure he's in with a shout. Although as we all know, anything can happen in Roubaix."
As for Thomas, his days of racing Paris-Roubaix are over, with his last performance there in 2018, the year the Welshman won the Tour de France. But as he heads towards retirement at the end of the season, Thomas says, things are going well at the Volta a Catalunya where he's riding in support for Egan Bernal. After that, Thomas'll be heading to the Tour of Romandie, and then to altitude training in Tenerife.
"I'm doing all right, taking it week by week and enjoying the racing. With the wind and stuff, the first mountain stage here made it a bit easier for me, which is fortunate for me, I guess. But I'm feeling ok, and day by day I'm getting better."
While Pogačar's participation in Paris-Roubaix is dominating the headlines, the stunning performance by up-and-coming British rider Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike) in the Volta a Catalunya, winner of the opening stage and second on day two could hardly fail to catch Thomas' attention in the race. But as he said, it's not just the sprinting that's so impressive.
"He's had an amazing start to his career so far, and obviously he's riding really very strongly here," Thomas said admiringly of a rider nearly 20 years his junior. "He was still there on the last climb yesterday [Wednesday, in the Pyrenees - Ed.] as well, so fair play to him. He's got a bright future."
