2018 Tour de France winner Geraint Thomas currently has a ringside seat on how the Tadej Pogačar-Jonas Vingegaard battle for this year's race is developing, and the Ineos Grenadiers star is in no doubt who, on current form and after nine stages, is most likely to come out victorious overall.
“I'd say Jonas [Vingegaard],” Thomas told Cyclingnews when asked on the first rest day whom he currently felt was the GC favourite to be wearing yellow in Nice in just under two weeks time.
2020 and 2021 Tour winner Pogačar currently leads Vingegaard, also a double Tour champion in 2022 and 2023, by 1:15, with debutant Remco Evenepoel sandwiched between the two on the provisional podium at 33 seconds on the UAE Team Emirates race leader.
However, Vingegaard could have greater endurance on the longer ascents, Thomas argued, which could have more impact long-term given all of the Pyrenees and most of the Alps are yet to come.
“There's a lot of long climbs in the end of the Tour as well and it won't be about the punch then, it'll be a totally different race. So from next weekend on [in the Pyrenees], I think that favours Jonas, as you would expect from the progression he’ll have as well," Thomas told Cyclingnews.
“I can’t imagine Pog’ will get better but whether he gets much worse - we’ll see.”
Thomas’ observations are born not only of his close-up view of what´s happening in this year’s Tour. He also has considerable experience of racing for top honours in a Grand Tour himself against both riders, first finishing third to Pogačar when he won the Giro just a few months back, and previously placing third against Vingegaard and the Slovenian when the Vimsa-Lease a Bike rider won the Tour for the first time in 2022.
In terms of how the Pogačar of the current Tour de France compares with the Pogačar of the recent Giro d’Italia, winning six stages and sweeping all before him, Thomas replies “It’s tough to say.”
“He’s still super strong, but we’ve only had one big mountain day and Jonas was close there. Pog' gained most of the time on the descent [off the Galibier] so I think it’s a lot closer than what people might think.
“I think it’s going to be an interesting final week for sure. I think he [Pogacar] is definitely no weaker and this second week suits him a lot.
"If anything, I’d say Pog’s going to be happy with the lead he’s got right now, but we saw what happened last year” - when Vingegaard overhauled the Slovenian in the final week of the Tour by a colossal margin - “so I think Visma will be quietly confident for where Vingegaard is right now.”
Thomas himself is currently on new terrain, racing the Tour de France after completing the Giro in what is effectively his first ever Giro-Tour ‘double’. In 2017 he also rode both races, the only other occasion he has done so despite having 21 Grand Tour on his palmares, but he abandoned both, too, because of crashes and subsequent injuries.
Regarding Sunday’s eventful and chaotic stage across the off-roads around Troyes, he said with his typical wry humour, “I’ve got a few more grey hairs after that, but maybe that’s just the dust and I’m kidding myself…"
“The first couple of sectors were the worst and after that, it didn’t necessarily settle down but you find your place in the peloton”- in Thomas' case culminating in 62nd on the line, in the main group of favourites.
“It was certainly stressful. I’m here to help [the team’s GC contenders], a different role for me [to the Giro] and the thing I struggled with yesterday was you’re at the end of the line and that’s definitely a bit more messy."
"You’re kind of losing the boys and then I definitely learned how I need to do my own things really. I need to let Kwiato [Michael Kwiatkowsk] and Ben [Turner] guide the GC guys, not necessarily follow them but just get there myself and then meet up with them, rather than try to follow when it just gets…too hard to stay on the wheel. So even at 38,” he concludes with another wry smile “I’m still learning.”
For Thomas there's a lot about racing the Tour this year, despite this being his 13th, that remains still something of a voyage in the dark. As he points out, other Julys he’s known where he’s coming in at, form-wise, and more or less what to expect of himself. This time, having completed the Giro, it's a very different story, and as he says, one which is throwing some surprises at him.
“Now I feel a bit more up and down, like for instance every day you have your minimum standard and it feels like I can still hit that. But the way I feel doing that varies quite a lot," said Thomas.
“And then even in the Giro on the punchy days, I felt like I was lacking a bit and that´s something I neglected in my training when I look back over the last couple of years.
“I felt it more at the start of this year’s race, coming out of corners and stuff, but that was maybe because of not racing since the Giro and stuff. But then in general, I definitely feel like I lack a bit on the sprint days, and so on. They take just a bit more out of me than they normally would do.”
Thomas is not entirely sure if the reduction in his bandwidth in the Tour, when it comes to accelerations and high-intensity racing in general, is down to age, or not doing as much specific training for it over the last couple of seasons or doing two Grand Tours back-to-back. But whatever the direct cause, or combination of them, when combined with the tiredness that so much racing in three months can bring, that punchiness, he says “is the first thing that goes.”
Still, like Vingegaard in the second and third week, Thomas is hoping that he’ll be able to turn things around and build on his considerable resilience to start making more of an impact. Should that be the case, he could be able to factor a more high-profile role into what he’s already doing.
“I’d definitely like to try on a stage to see what I could do but it all depends on the feelings on the day. I’m just feeling so random at the moment. There are definitely some stages we can look at and maybe go up the road to help Carlos [Rodríguez, Ineos GC leader] or whoever. Or go for a stage myself. But for now, it's day by day"
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