Who will win the Paris Olympics individual time trial? Analysing the favourites

The Paris Olympic Games is already upon us following the conclusion of the Tour de France, and the road racing action is first on the menu with the men's and women's time trials both coming on the opening weekend (Saturday, July 27).

The cream of the crop of the world time trial stars have gathered in Paris for the rare opportunity to tilt at the gold medal, with all of them tackling the same flat 32.4km out-and-back course from Invalides to Pont Alexandre III via the Bois de Vincennes in France's capital city.

The time trial at the Olympic Games has been around since 1912, when South Africa's Rudolph Lewis won the 320km men's test. It was shelved after 1932, however, only making a return at Atlanta 1996, where the women's time trial was also introduced.

Since then, names including Miguel Indurain, Kristin Armstrong (three times), Fabian Cancellara (twice), Annemiek van Vleuten, and Primož Roglič have triumphed.

Read on for our rundown on the top favourites to add their names to the honour roll at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games time trials.

Remco Evenepoel (Belgium)

It's no surprise that the reigning world time trial champion Remco Evenepoel is among the top picks for Olympic gold in the time trial in Paris. The Belgian heads to the Games from his debut Tour de France, where he raced to third overall in Nice.

He rounded off his ride with a third place in the tough hilly time trial over La Turbie and the Col d'Eze but powered to the stage win at the mid-race time trial in Gevrey-Chambertin, run on a flatter parcours.

Earlier this year, Evenepoel won the flat 22km time trial at the Volta ao Algarve and the rolling 34km test at the Critérium du Dauphiné, while his Worlds win came on a largely flat 48km course.

The main thing that could count against him is a lack of freshness, especially compared to several of his main competitors, who didn't race the Tour.

For his Belgian teammate Wout van Aert, the opposite may be true. The 29-year-old scored seven top-10s during the Tour but wasn't at 100%, so three weeks in France may have served as perfect preparation for Paris. (DO)

Chloé Dygert (USA)

As the reigning time trial World Champion, the USA’s Chloé Dygert will be the heavy favourite heading into the Paris Olympics, as she looks to have success on both the road and track in races against the clock. It’s a course that suits her, with the flat 32.4km heading east and back into the centre of Paris playing to the strengths of the powerful American.

It’s set to be her third Olympics after racing the team pursuit at Rio 2016 and Tokyo in 2021, also taking on the road events in Japan where she was 31st in the road race and seventh in the much hillier time trial. However, Tokyo was on one of her many returns from setbacks after a major crash at Imola Worlds the year prior saw her out of action for a prolonged period, with a bout of Epstein-Barr virus then undergoing surgery to treat supraventricular tachycardia in 2022 also pushing back her road career.

Since her stunning comeback to form in the 2023 season, where she took her first WorldTour win at the RideLondon Classique and went on to be ITT World Champion in Stirling, Dygert has well-established herself as the favourite for Paris. She has a silver and bronze medal already but looks set to go one better with gold in Paris.

However, even this season has been hampered by both injury and illness, with an Achilles issue and COVID-19 throughout the season resulting in her not riding a road time trial for the whole season and her only completing three UCI race days. 

Filippo Ganna (Italy)

Two-time world time trial champion and reigning Italian time trial champion Filippo Ganna may not be the unbeatable force he once was in the discipline, but he heads to the second Games of his career with a great chance of walking away with a medal of some description.

Last time out, in Tokyo, he placed fifth, missing out on bronze by two seconds and silver by five, but you'd bet on him to improve on that showing this time around.

Ganna has opted for a quiet build-up to Paris, taking on the four-day Tour of Austria this month, where he showed his form with a final-day stage victory. He's built his entire season around Paris, where he'll also take on the road race and defend Italy's gold medal in the team pursuit on the track.

This year he has more second places in time trials and prologues (three) than wins, though those two victories at the Giro d'Italia and Italian Championships show that he'll be a force to be reckoned with on the big stage at the Olympics. (DO)

Ellen van Dijk (Netherlands)

Ellen van Dijk has had a wild nine months in the run-up to the Paris Olympics, her third Games after London 2012 and Rio 2016. From giving birth to her first child Faas in October to returning to racing with Lidl-Trek in March, breaking her ankle while training in June and finally announcing earlier this month that she would be able to participate in Paris.

Despite the last few arduous weeks of recovery which she has called "the hardest challenge of her career", the three-time World Champion against the clock is not to be underestimated as a competitor for gold on July 27. Her last two titles came back-to-back on flat courses 30km and 34km in length in Bruges and Wollongong from 2021 to 2022, similar to the 32.4km flat effort due in Paris later this week.

Van Dijk will also be spurred on having missed out on the Tokyo Olympics, where compatriots Annemiek van Vleuten and Anna van der Breggen bookended the podium with gold and bronze in the hilly time trial. With Demi Vollering taking on the ITT alongside Van Dijk, the Netherlands could once again be looking at dominating the podium.

Brandon McNulty (USA)

The USA's medal hope Brandon McNulty has built a reputation as a top time triallist over the years, to the extent that he has as many wins in the discipline as anyone in 2024.

Victories at the UAE Tour, Tour de Romandie (ahead of TT teammate Magnus Sheffield), and last month's US Nationals put him even with Evenepoel on three triumphs this season. Last year, he took his biggest time trial result with fourth place on the 48km course at the Glasgow Worlds, even if he was 1:27 off gold.

He has Olympic experience, having taken on the road race last time out in Tokyo, racing to sixth place. This will be his Games time trial, debut, however. Paris is his biggest goal of the season, with both time trial and road race on the menu here.

He's another rider who heads into the Games with fresh legs in preparation for the dual assault, having not raced since the US Nationals back in mid-May. (DO)

Grace Brown (Australia)

Australia’s Grace Brown is the highest finisher from Tokyo taking part in the time trial, with Van Vleuten and Van der Breggen both retiring and silver medallist Marlen Reusser missing out due to lingering illness. She’s proved to be one of the absolute best riders against the clock in the peloton, having also finished runner-up at the previous two World Championships in Wollongong and Stirling.

She’s managed a top five in her past 16 time trials and is in good form in 2024 after taking wins at the Australian national championships and Bretagne Ladies Tour, only losing out on the opening stage of the Giro d’Italia by one second to Elisa Longo Borghini (Italy.

It’s also set to be the final Olympics of Brown’s career having announced she will retire at the end of the season to go back to Australia for good so she can settle down and enjoy family life which she has missed as a pro. 

“Let’s see if I can sign off in style,” Brown said after announcing the end of her cycling career. Paris is the perfect opportunity.

Josh Tarling (Great Britain)

Great Britain's hope for gold, Josh Tarling, is the newest big name on the time trial scene, having shot to the top of the discipline after turning pro straight from the junior ranks last year.

Still only 18, he kicked off his professional career with a podium spot at the Etoile de Bessèges time trial, then repeating the feat after his 19th birthday at the UAE Tour. In June he blitzed the time trial at the British Championships before going on to even greater things – elite bronze at his home Worlds and then wins (beating Stefan Bissegger, Wout Van Aert, and Remco Evenepoel) at the European Championships and Chrono des Nations.

This season, he defended his national title with ease with another minute-plus margin to second place, also winning the opening TT at O Gran Camiño. His racing summer has been a light one, with the Critérium du Dauphiné (second to Evenepoel in the time trial) and two days at the Nationals his only outings.

Like Ganna, then, he'll be fresh as he heads to Paris for the first Olympic outing of his career aged just 20. Former junior world time trial champion Tarling has already shown that he likes the big occasions, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him among the medals again here. (DO)

Demi Vollering (Netherlands)

The Dutch tend to dominate the favourites list for any women’s races as the top nation across most disciplines, so it’s no surprise that Demi Vollering makes this list even with Van Dijk seeming the stronger option. 

Vollering is the best GC rider in women’s cycling and that doesn’t come without a strong ITT in her arsenal, although she isn’t as strong in the discipline as the likes of Van Dijk and Dygert, who are pure time trial specialists and best suit the flat, power course through Paris.

While she didn’t win the Dutch national championships, losing out to Riejanne Markus in June, this did arrive after a huge block of stage racing in Spain and Switzerland, when she won four WorldTour stage races in a row including the Vuelta, Itzulia, Burgos and Suisse. 

In the latter, she also won her first time trial since the 2021 Women’s Tour, albeit on a mountain ITT, but she has managed several podium finishes in races against the clock since then. A medal looks likely in some way for Vollering. 

Expect her to be fresh heading into the Olympics, with the time trial and road race both on her menu before she heads home to the Netherlands for the Grand Départ of the 2024 Tour de France Femmes where she will defend her title from last year. (JM)

Stefan Küng (Switzerland)

Stefan Küng has notched 20 time trial wins throughout his career, including two European titles and six national titles. But the Swiss hope has garnered a reputation as a nearly man on the big time trial occasions.

In his debut Olympics outing in Tokyo, he took fourth place, fractions of a second away from bronze, while 10 time trial outings at the Tour de France have seen him finish five times in the top 10 including two second places. At the World Championships, he's scored third, fifth, and second (by just three seconds) places in nine starts.

After the near-miss three summers ago, the 30-year-old will be determined to come away with a medal this time. He has one time trial win in five attempts this season, the sole triumph coming over a minute ahead of Paris teammate and fellow contender Stefan Bissegger at the Swiss Nationals.

Since then, he's raced 19 days of the Tour de France which included a 10th place in the hilly mid-race time trial. Paris is possibly Küng's final chance at picking up an Olympic medal in his career and he'll be determined to undo the disappointment of Tokyo. (DO)

Elisa Longo Borghini (Italy)

Italy’s Elisa Longo Borghini is heading into the Olympics right from an emotional and thrilling first overall triumph at the Giro d’Italia Women, 13 years after she first rode her home Grand Tour. Spurred on by this, she looks like a possible medal contender in both road events.

Time trialling has gone well for the Italian recently having won the stage 1 time trial at the Giro en route to taking her overall victory. It was also against a strong field with both Brown and Lotte Kopecky taking on the Giro, with Longo Borghini narrowly beating the Australian by one second into Brescia.

It wasn’t as flat a course as will be taken on in Paris, however, Longo Borghini has been on a hot streak of form in 2024 after returning to the peak of her powers from an injury and illness-riddled 2023 season, where crashes, COVID-19 and sepsis were among the hardships she faced.

Longo Borghini has finished 10th and fifth in the time trial at the past two Olympics but she does have two bronze medals from the Rio and Tokyo road races. Could Paris 2024 be the year she finally strikes silver or gold? (JM)

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