Who can beat Tadej Pogacar? Favourites and contenders for La Flèche Wallonne

Had Tadej Pogačar stuck to an earlier version of his 2023 game plan and avoided La Flèche Wallonne, there would have been a colossal power vacuum in the mid-week Classic this spring. 

Not only is Alejandro Valverde, the record holder in Flèche with five victories, missing from the running after his retirement, but three-time winner Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-QuickStep) and defending champion Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech) are also not present. As a result, on Wednesday’s provisional start list, there’s a serious dearth of top names who have already triumphed on the Mur de Huy.

Normally, the search for a new dominator of the only Spring Classic with a full-blown summit finish would have been subject to much debate on Wednesday morning. But as it is, Tadej Pogačar’s overwhelming status as pre-race favourite in just about every event he starts makes the question of who can beat the Slovenian a tricky one to answer.

Those wanting to best Pogačar, however, can draw comfort from the fact that in three Flèche starts, he has had a comparatively poor track record of 53rd in 2019, ninth in 2020 and twelfth in 2022. 

His DNS in 2021 was certainly not due to low form, though, rather a positive COVID test in the team that caused the entire UAE squad to withdraw the night before. No matter, Pogačar proceeded to win in Liège on the following Sunday. On top of that, morale in Pogačar’s team will be sky-high given his seemingly unstoppable runaway train of 2023 success, and that the UAE line-up also includes the one previous Flèche Wallonne winner lining up in Hervé this Wednesday morning - Switzerland’s Marc Hirschi.

It’s also worth remembering that La Flèche Wallonne is invariably the most predictable of all the Spring Classics in terms of how it unfolds. 2003 is the 20th anniversary of the most recent Flèche Wallonne that failed to ened in a mass uphill bunch sprint, when Igor Astarloa shed fellow-Basque Aitor Osa to claim Spain’s first-ever win in Flèche Wallonne. Two decades on and with UAE likely to be keeping everything under control trying to break away early, then, is even less likely to succeed. Unless, of course, you're Pogačar, who's proven to be quite good at long-distance moves recently.

Yet for all that and even if neither of the two riders that stopped the Slovenian this spring in the Classics, Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), are present in the Ardennes, Pogačar has not won every one-day race he’s started this spring. There is an art to winning at Flèche which very few riders have succeeded in mastering in recent years, too, and if Pogačar is obviously the nailed-on favourite, the riders below are amongst those most likely to give him a good run for his money.

Favourites

Giulio Ciccone (Trek-Segafredo)

There are few regularly used reference points out there for summit finishes as viciously steep as the Mur de Huy, but the Planche des Belles Filles in the Tour de France is arguably one of the best. It's worth noting that while 2022 Flèche winner Dylan Teuns also raised his arms on the Vosges climb in 2019 (and Pogačar three years later), Ciccone was the rider who came away with the maillot jaune on his shoulders that day.

This year Ciccone has twice proved his ability to find his way to the front of small groups in difficult summit finishes and go for the win remains undiminished. The first time came in the shape of a win on a brutally steep finale in the season-opening Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, the second in the longer, steadier ascent of Valter in the Volta a Catalunya, where he outmastered two stars of the stature of Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) and Remco Evenepoel (Souldal-QuickStep).

Ciccone may be lacking a little in top-end condition as he hasn’t raced since Catalunya, but with a formidably strong Trek-Segafredo team to back him, including a potential co-leader in Mattias Skjelmose, Ciccone will be a man to watch out for on Wednesday afternoon.

Diego Ulissi  (UAE Team Emirates)

In the unlikely event that Tadej Pogačar could be suffering from a dip in form in what has been an impressively long run of top condition this spring, UAE Team Emirates' decision to field Diego Ulissi means they also have one of the most experienced Flèche Wallonne racers on Wednesday’s start-list.

Clever team strategy in the recent Giro di Sicilia’s opening uphill finish saw the Italian, the firm pre-race favourite, take a step back and green light teammate Finn Fisher-Black to try (and succeed) at winning the stage. In Flèche, Ulissi may be playing the role of foil, rather than the team’s Plan A, to either Pogačar or Marc Hirschi if either the Slovenian or former Fleche Wallonne winner is on a great day.

But taken on his own merits, Ulissi’s ten previous starts and three top ten finishes in Flèche, the best a third place in 2019, put the Italian firmly among the list of potential winners. That’s something UAE certainly won’t have forgotten when it comes to their pre-race meeting on the team bus on Wednesday morning.

Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)

Tom Pidcock is one of the few riders, like Pogačar, who has managed to bridge the divide between racing on the cobbled Classics and the Ardennes this year. Third in Amstel Gold, Pidcock mentioned the distance as a possible factor to his fading in the finale. With Flèche being over 50 kilometres shorter, that won’t be such an issue on Wednesday.

An encouraging sixth in his first participation in 2021, but an abandon in 2022 and then a lacklustre Liège-Bastogne-Liège the following Sunday make it uncertain, as yet, which version of Pidcock we’ll get to see on Wednesday. But the Yorkshireman's motivation to bounce back from Amstel’s defeat will surely be high, and his light physique, formidable Classics experience, climbing chops and ability to produce a fast last-ditch acceleration on summit finishes - like in the Tour of Alsace at La Planches des Belles Filles in 2019 -  is an ideal combination for ascents as daunting as the Mur de Huy.

Mike Woods (Israel-Premier Tech)

When Mike Woods was interviewed last year at the start of  Flèche Wallonne last year, he described himself as a contender, not a favourite. But if anything of a post-Valverde power vacuum really remains with the presence of a certain Slovenian on the start line, then it can be argued that, compared to 2022, the veteran Canadian has moved up several rungs in the hierarchy of potential contenders.

That’s partly because of the three Ardennes Classics, Flèche is arguably the one which suits Woods the best. With a powerful uphill sprint, a well-honed sense of positioning that has brought him multiple top-ten Flèche finishes as well as a podium finish in 2020, and an Israel-Premier Tech team which will, in the absence of defending champion Teuns, back him to the hilt, Woods will surely be looking to do better than his sixth place of 2022.

Mattias Skjelmose (Trek-Segafredo)

Giulio Ciccone may be an obvious top option for Trek-Segafredo on Wednesday and it’s worth remembering that his teammate Bauke Mollema has no fewer than five top tens in his Flèche palmares, albeit the most recent in 2019 when the Netherlands racer finished sixth. But a rider 14 years Mollema’s junior, Denmark’s Mattias Skjelmose, has been getting ever close to netting a big result this season on the climbs, and Flèche might just be where he makes the breakthrough.

Skjelmose has taken two stage wins already this year at the Etoile de Besseges and Tour des Alpes Maritimes et du Var, was very much in the thick of the action at the Itzulia Basque Country where he led the best young rider competition for almost all the race, and on top of that claimed eighth in the Amstel Gold Race on Sunday. He also took fourth in the Mur de Huy last year when it was used as the first summit finish for the Tour de Wallonie.

Given Flèche is much shorter than the weekend’s hilly Classics, and his relative youth won’t therefore be such a handicap in terms of the distance, at the worst it’ll be intriguing to see how he and Ciccone play what is likely going to be a two-hander for Trek-Segafredo on Wednesday. 

Bubbling Under

This time last year, Enric Mas (Movistar) could be seen providing a final leadout for Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde on the Mur de Huy. With Valverde now missing from the running, it’ll be intriguing to see if Mas is able to step up to the breach. Equally, Bora-Hansgrohe’s Sergio Higuita has been on stunning form recently in the Itzulia Basque Country and if the Colombian can produce anything like the sort of uphill acceleration that won him a tough summit finish in the Tour de Pologne last year, he’ll be in with a chance on Wednesday.

Michal Kwiatkowski’s first ever breakthrough result in the Ardennes Classics came in Flèche Wallonne way back in 2014 when the former World Champion finished third. It’s true that although the his results on the Mur de Huy have been a consistently downwards curve since then, dropping to 92nd in 2022, Kwiato's innate ability to shine on the climbs remains intact.

If the Spanish are very much on the hunt to try and fill Valverde’s shoes, France is no less keen to see who can shine in the absence of Alaphilippe, with three top outsiders.

For all that he has had a quiet start to 2023, former Tour de France King of the Mountains winner Warren Barguil (Arkéa-Samsic) has had a remarkably consistent track record in Flèche Wallonne, with fourth, fifth and ninth in the last three years. Benoit Cosnefroy (AG2R Citröen) may yet bounce back from his off-day in Amstel Gold and his compatriot David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), who abandoned Amstel, may yet turn things around in a race where he took a breakthrough second place in 2020.

Other riders with strong dark-horse status include the duo who rounded out the top five in Amstel Gold on Sunday after a lengthy pursuit of the three top finishers, Lotto-Dstny’s Andreas Kron and Astana Qazaqstan’s Alexey Lutsenko, recently the winner of the Giro di Siclia. Last but not least, interest in how young Irish racer Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) can fare after his runners'-up spots in Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold will also likely be very high this Wednesday. If Healy finds the slopes of Huy too hard for his liking, his Colombian teammate, Esteban Chaves, is another potential favourite flying just under the radar.