Who will win the Tour de France 2024? The GC favorites

Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar at the 2023 Tour de France (Image credit: Zac Williams/SWpix)

The 2024 Tour de France is underway, so it's time to run the rule over the form of those vying for the yellow jersey in the first-ever Tour in its 121-year history to finish outside Paris.

Jonas Vingegaard remained the most important missing part of the puzzle until his Visma-Lease a Bike team announced just nine days before the Tour that he would be on the start line in Florence on June 29. However, with no racing in his legs, it's unknown how his form will be.

He’ll need to refind his race rhythm instantly on the opening duo of punchy Italian stages with a hellish test arriving quickly on stage 4, which features the fabled Col du Galibier. Signs are looking good for Vingegaard but Visma were cautious to predict whether he'd challenge the top step of the podium and if he is to defeat Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) for a third time running, he’ll need to be at his absolute best. The first week could reveal all.

Grand Tour winner Jai Hindley and former top-five finisher at the Tour Aleksandr Vlasov took up the mantle of pacing up to Le Collet d'Allevard and Samoëns 1600. Given their own reputations as top climbers, it shouldn’t have been a surprise how strong they were but the trio’s chemistry looked like that of a well-oiled, experienced climbing core - not riders who had completed under 10 race days together.

If he can stay rubber-side down, Roglič and Pogačar will face off at the Tour and at a stage race for the first time since the 2022 edition. Their last head-to-head for Tour victory came at the dramatic 2020 race when Roglič seemed to have the better of his compatriot until a dramatic turn on the stage 20 time trial up to La Planche des Belles Filles. Four years on and it could be a race against the clock to Nice which secures Roglič and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe their dream win.

His earlier statements were confirmed when he got dropped on stages 6,7 and 8 as he suffered behind those not on the journey back from fractures or in better shape. But there wasn’t the capitulation from last year’s Vuelta where an awful day on the Col d'Aubisque ended his title defence. Instead, we saw Evenepoel the fighter emerge in the background, pacing his efforts well and holding onto seventh overall.

It was also probably the hardest day at the Dauphiné to win, with seven days of constantly undulating roads in the legs and back-to-back-to-back tough mountain tests bringing the race to a close. However, Rodríguez only managed fourth overall behind Roglič, Jorgenson and surprise GC package Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech). And this is no disrespect to Gee, who was simply excellent from start to finish at the Dauphiné, but Rodríguez would expect to beat him. Let alone finish 24 seconds down.

With 59 ITT kilometres incoming throughout the Tour’s three weeks, Rodríguez will be hoping to limit the damage to the big four favourites who all excel in TTs. He’ll know he has to enter the days against the clock with an advantage over fellow podium challengers if he is to become the first Spaniard to finish in the top three since Alejandro Valverde in 2015. However, he is only 23 so still has his best legs ahead of him and the white jersey could be a real target with Pogačar no longer young enough to qualify.

This made June incredibly important for Yates, who proved the rider who came third at last year’s Tour was ready to take things on again. He dominated the Tour de Suisse alongside teammate João Almeida, netting four stage wins and four 1-2 finishes between them. But Yates was the overall winner, holding onto his lead even after the final mountain TT despite Almeida’s proficiency in the discipline.

Yates' vast experience in the Tour de France, dating back to when he placed fourth in 2016 and took the best young rider's classification, already made him a solid bet for strong performances each July, but his third place and stage win last year gave a massive boost to his credibility as a contender. There were question marks about where he would fare this summer after his concussion but after his Suisse performance, the podium or top-five certainly looks possible again.

This best suits Almeida purely because of how he races and specifically, how he tackles climbs. There’s never a big acceleration from the Portuguese rider but simply an ability to endure the suffering more. Almeida has made a name for himself not only as a Giro d’Italia podium finisher but as a great tempo climber, often riding his own pace and seemingly always finding a second wind up the hardest mountains.

Leading our list of honourable mentions is the fourth-place finisher from the 2023 Tour de France, Simon Yates (AlUla). Only low down because there just isn’t much form to go off. Yates has opted to train throughout May and June instead of racing, with his last appearance before the Tour being the Tour de Romandie, where he was 11th. He found career-best form taking a similar approach to take fourth behind twin Adam last season, though, so why not trust the process? It also may be his final Tour with the Australian squad with a rumoured move to Visma-Lease a Bike coming next year.

Alongside Rodríguez it's Enric Mas (Movistar) who represents Spain’s GC hopes at the Tour de France this year. He’s been his similar consistent yet unspectacular best in 2024 so far, with another top 10 result in his most recent race, the Tour de Suisse. But he was way off the pace of Yates and Almeida, some five minutes back after the eight days. It’s the time trials which will kill off Mas’s chances, however as a very solid Grand Tour rider - with seven top-six finished in the nine Grand Tours he’s completed - expect him to be there or thereabouts in France.

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) should realistically be way higher on this list as a former Grand Tour winner and podium finisher at the Tour behind Vingegaard and Pogačar in 2021. However, his form simply hasn’t been there in 2024, with crashes and injuries stymieing his ability to lead EF as he was signed to do. His most recent appearance saw him abandon the recent Tour de Suisse after sustaining a face injury just. And it was a crash on stage 1 that ruled him out of last year’s Tour. But if he can get a clean run at the 21 stages, he’s a fierce and savvy GT competitor.

Jai Hindley and Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) could be higher ranked in a similar fashion to Yates and Almeida at UAE or Jorgenson at Visma. However, if their tactics from the Dauphiné were anything to go off, then the experienced GT pair will empty all of their reserves for Roglič. The Russian did hold onto a top-six finish after putting in incredible pulls for Roglič’s two stage wins but Hindley, the 2022 Giro winner, was done long before the summit finishes and fell to 20th overall by the end of the week.

More Spanish hopes to reach the podium come in the form of Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious). Bilbao finished sixth in last year’s race thanks to a stunning win from the break on stage 10. He’s also netted top 10s in each of his three last Grand Tours and has hit the right form just ahead of the race with second overall at the Tour of Slovenia. He’ll be aided by experienced Bahrain-Victorious teammates Jack Haig and Wout Poels, with talented young Colombian Santiago Buitrago offering a second GC option.

A new addition to the list of honourable mentions, and the biggest surprise on here, is Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech). The 2023 breakthrough star went from Giro d’Italia breakaway hope to a realistic GC contender at the Critérium du Dauphiné, only losing out to Roglič and Jorgenson. Gee surprised himself on the hardest climbing days after scoring a maiden WorldTour win on stage 3, even pacing on the front for too long as he entered unknown territory. Gee not only has huge determination but also a massive TT engine on his side and for Gee, the best thing is that it could also be a first Grand Tour GC adventure without any pressure.

It feels slightly criminal having no French rider on the list of top contenders but that is simply the current landscape of French GC ambitions for the Tour de France. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) is perhaps the best bet having taken fourth at the Tour just two years ago and ninth last year, but he’s not shown that shape in a while. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 of a stage race this season and like many of those mentioned above, the time trial kilometres are a real killer for his hopes.

James Moultrie is a gold-standard NCTJ journalist who joined Cyclingnews as a News Writer in 2023 after originally contributing as a freelancer for eight months, during which time he also wrote for Eurosport, Rouleur and Cycling Weekly. Prior to joining the team he reported on races such as Paris-Roubaix and the Giro d’Italia Donne for Eurosport and has interviewed some of the sport’s top riders in Chloé Dygert, Lizzie Deignan and Wout van Aert. Outside of cycling, he spends the majority of his time watching other sports – rugby, football, cricket, and American Football to name a few.