Sean Kelly’s Classics Column: Milan-San Remo was a Mathieu van der Poel masterclass – but Flanders favourite status is in the balance

Mathieu van der Poel’s victory in Milan-San Remo on Saturday was a masterclass ride, but he and Tadej Pogačar are still neck-and-neck when it comes to favourite status for the Tour of Flanders and the next Monument win.

Thanks to a rainy day in Ireland on Saturday, I watched more of Milan-San Remo than I ever have before, flicking between the men’s and women’s races.

The women’s race was really interesting. It was quite similar to the men’s race in some ways, because it was difficult to make the race hard, and the terrain didn’t present opportunities for some of the favourites, so we saw quite a big group on the top of the Poggio. That’s a big difference from five years ago, to have so many riders on a similar level. The riders and teams are much better, so there are more people able to be together in the final, except when the course is really difficult, and San Remo isn’t that kind of race.

The attack from Elisa Longo Borghini came at the perfect moment, but unfortunately with SD Worx and the power they had, they were always going to close it down for a sprint because they had Lorena Wiebes, and that huge effort from Lotte Kopecky.

It was a huge win for Wiebes, but I was also really impressed by Pauline Ferrand-Prévot. When she announced that she was coming back to the road after the Olympics, I thought she was going to have some difficulties because the level the women are racing at is so high now and she’s been gone for so long, so I was expecting her to take a long time to find her feet, but she’s up there already, and it’s great to see. Her and Vos both sprinting was not perfect, but she’s not really a lead-out rider, and I think it was probably so fast in the end that it was hard to get organised. 

When the men’s race started, there was a big question over the weather, but it was a bit like when I won in 1986, with horrible weather at the start and then it dried up over towards the coast, so luckily there was plenty of time for the riders to warm up, and the weather didn’t affect the race too much.

Before we talk about the big names, though, I want to give some credit to one of the domestiques who maybe doesn’t get praised enough for what they do, and that’s Silvan Dillier. What an enormous performance, controlling the breakaway, he must have done 200 kilometres on the front!

Thanks to Dillier’s control, the first part of the race was pretty normal, what you’d expect, and then it all became hectic on the Cipressa. Even before the winning attack, so many riders saw their race already over at the bottom of the climb, held up behind a crash just as Tim Wellens set that killer pace. Even Pogačar was out of position. 

It was mind-boggling how fast UAE were going, and even they got shuffled around a bit. They didn’t have Isaac del Toro when they needed him, and I do wonder if it might have been a different situation if he’d been there and set a real climbing pace. In the end, though, I think it was always going to be Pogačar, Van der Poel and Ganna who ended up in the front.

They went so fast up the climb, but the lack of cohesion behind certainly helped, because no teams were really getting organised, or they wanted to save something for the sprint, so that helped them stay away between the Cipressa and the Poggio, something that’s historically been hard to do.

On the Poggio, Van der Poel knew Pogačar was going to attack, he didn’t even need to look – when you’re as experienced as he is, you can just feel it. He was always right in the wheel, you could see the way he was working, and I knew he wasn’t going to get into difficulty at all. I wasn’t surprised when he put in the attack at the top, because if you poke the bear, even if you’re the world champion, he’s going to fight back, and Van der Poel is a really big bear.

Then in the sprint, the way Ganna came back late actually worked well, because it didn’t complicate things too much, and also meant that Van der Poel and Pogačar kept riding in the final because they didn’t want him to come back. But ultimately, Van der Poel rode the sprint perfectly, and he was so explosive when he launched. He was just on top and in control all the way.

When you look at San Remo, you’d think that it would be an advantage to Pogačar with the Cipressa and the Poggio, because we know how explosive he is, and even if it is hard for him to make them really, difficult, they’re still tough climbs when you’re going at that pace. So it was going to be difficult for Van der Poel to match Pogačar, but the way he did it on Saturday, he was just a master. It was a masterclass.

A big battle at Flanders

With Flanders and Roubaix coming up, which are more his terrain, and the way he’s riding, it’s going to be interesting to see who can challenge the Dutch rider in the two big races.

It looks like advantage Van der Poel in the Belgian Classics, but we still have to see where Van Aert, Pedersen and all those guys are during this week with E3 and Gent-Wevelgem. But at the moment, Van der Poel is the big favourite for Flanders. Pogačar is going to be up there as well, he’ll be close if not equal to Van der Poel, because we’ve seen the way he can ride on the cobbles as if they’re not even there.

The key part of the parcours and the battle will be the Oude Kwaremont. It’s a long section of cobbles and the climb goes on and on, so Pogačar can really put Van der Poel in difficulty, more so than in Milan-San Remo. Van der Poel will have to be at his best if he wants to match Pogačar.

I think Pogačar will be in the mix in races like E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, but I don’t actually know why he’s racing them. He’s a racer, he loves being in the action, but sometimes that also means being in the dangerous stuff. With the wind and the terrain, those races are always that bit more risky than riding something like Milan-San Remo. For a rider like him, if he won E3 or Gent-Wevelgem, they’re not big in the broad scheme of things, we won’t even be talking about that once it gets to the Tour de France.

He also doesn’t need to race them to warm up to Flanders. He has enough experience in that race, he could go away and prepare in another way, or he could ride them with safety in mind and not take any risk, but the thing is Pogačar doesn’t do that. When he gets that adrenaline flow, he’s going to get involved, and that’s where the danger is. So for a rider whose objective is the Tour, I’m surprised he’s doing so many of them.

The team should be able to talk to him and say 'Look, this is too much of a dangerous programme, we just don’t want you to do it' but it seems very much that what he wants to do, he gets permission to do it to quite a big extent, and that could turn out to affect his preparations for the Tour.

What else can Van der Poel win?

Both Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar have won three of the five Monuments, and they must be thinking about whether they can win all five – even if Milan-San Remo seems to be a problem for Pogačar.

I don’t think it’s impossible for Van der Poel to win Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Last year we saw him racing Liège, but the way he’d been racing all the cobbled Classics, he hadn’t really done any specific preparation for the race, like a stage race or anything. But then he came to the race and finished third, after a crash at a vital moment, so he really surprised me with that performance. So I think Liège is certainly one he can win.

For Lombardy, though, I think the climbs are too long and difficult, so I think that would be more difficult for him to win. It’s like Pogačar with San Remo: there’s a possibility, but it’s going to be very, very difficult.

We could see both riders end up stuck on four Monuments. I’m hoping so, at least. I only got four Monuments, I never won Flanders, so I’d be happy, because then I’d be equal to them.