Sean Kelly's Classics Column: Mads Pedersen should be very motivated, but it's going to be Van der Poel vs Pogačar at the Tour of Flanders
Sean Kelly reflects on E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, and what the results mean for the big Monument coming this weekend
After the E3 Saxo Classic and Gent-Wevelgem, it's clear that it's Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar vs the rest at the Tour of Flanders on Sunday.
I was holding my breath after Van der Poel's performance in Milan-San Remo, because that's a race where you can sit and wait, so I thought he needed to make a demonstration at E3, and that's exactly what he did. He was caught behind that split, but we've seen him come back from mistakes in Classics before, and that's just Mathieu, he doesn't get panicked, and he always has the recipe to win.
We see riders like Mads Pedersen who try to make the race difficult early on, as he did in E3, so Van der Poel doesn't always have to be the one to go first. He knows that he can choose to do it, but he doesn't have to attack from so far out, because even if he gets closer to finish with a lot of guys, he's so explosive when it goes that few can follow him. That means he doesn't have to do these long breakaways and shake it up early.
That's the problem with him, though, because he can win races in so many different ways, so what can you do against him? There's not much when he's in the form he is at the moment.
I think this means he will be the big favourite for the Flanders – it's going to be Van der Poel vs Pogačar on Sunday. Pogačar is going to try and ride away on the Oude Kwaremont, which is where the race will be decided, because it's a long climb, and because of how key positioning is, you have to make a lot of effort and invest a lot of energy.
The Kwaremont is where Pogačar can put the guys like Van der Poel in difficulty, which we've seen him do in the past, but will he be able to do it this time? I think it's going to be more difficult to get rid of Van der Poel if he's on a good day. He'll follow him all the time on those climbs. And the rest, where will they be? I think they'll have difficulty staying with those two main guys in the important moments.
Even though Pogačar skipped E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in the end, we know his form is excellent. We've also seen that Pogačar is a rider who can train, and not race for a bit, but still come to a race at his best, and that's all thanks to the modern methods of training.
If everything is good health-wise, he'll be at his best on Sunday, but even then, he's going to know that Mathieu van der Poel is going to be his shadow in the vital moments of the race. With the way Van der Poel is riding, I think he's going to be a big problem for Pogačar at the end of Flanders.
UAE Team Emirates-XRG will definitely try to make the race more difficult, but it's a tough one in Flanders, because it's not easy to have a lot of riders around you going into the final. UAE may have the strongest team for that in other races, ones with more climbing, but I think Alpecin-Deceuninck are the better team for Flanders. The style of riders they have gives them an advantage, they know how to ride this race, they're specialists in this terrain.
If you look at the budgets, UAE's team is probably way more expensive and they have bigger names, but that's really irrelevant to how things will play out on the road.
The best of the rest?
The third-best rider will probably be Pedersen. He had to go long at Gent-Wevelgem on Sunday to be able to make the difference, and it worked. He's in his best form, clearly, but it will be interesting to see how he goes on Sunday and if he can match Pogačar and Van der Poel. He is at his best, but unfortunately for him, those two are still going to be a problem.
I think he just needs to ride his own race and see what will happen in the end, because you never know, and so much can happen in Flanders: the weather could be bad, there can be crashes, riders can be in the wrong position at a vital moment. That can all make for a different outcome in the end. So I think he should go to the race with huge motivation, rocket-high confidence from Sunday's win, and the knowledge that the plan could go out the window pretty quickly.
The missing piece in all of this is Wout van Aert. His problems on Friday seemed to be about positioning, which was difficult to understand for such an experienced rider, but you can always have a little bit of bad luck in these races, and with one tiny mistake you can very quickly find yourself on the back foot. But even besides that, he doesn't look like he's at the level that I was hoping he would be at, because it would be interesting to see him in the mix challenging Van der Poel and Pogačar at the Tour of Flanders, but it doesn't look like he's at that level at the moment.
Matteo Jorgenson is the rider who's coming up for Visma-Lease a Bike, and we saw how well he performed in the semi-Classics and Classics last year, so he just needs to make that next step now to be able to stay with the top guys in the very final part of the races. He's one of the guys I'm really looking forward to seeing on Sunday, not just how he can perform, but also how the team will play it between him and Van Aert.
Stefan Küng is another rider to look out for. He's always there, pretty close and on a number of times he's been the one who's been able to follow good moves. Will he be able to raise his level and have a good day on Sunday, and maybe make a surprise in the end? If you go to the end with six or eight guys and someone like Küng is there, there's always a possibility that he could find an opportunity.
Huge performances but less suspense
As much as we can talk about the other riders, if I was a betting man, I would definitely say it would be a two-up final between Pogačar and Van der Poel on Sunday.
The unfortunate thing is, though, that that does take out some of the excitement right at the end. The racing is exciting, but when it goes down to the final 40 or 50 kilometres, it's not always as exciting as it could be. Take Roubaix last year or even E3 just now as examples, the suspense is just not there in the very end. Whereas if you look at Milan-San Remo, it was edge-of-your-seat stuff, the way it unfolded over the Poggio, on the descent and into the final. But these other big ones, they can be a bit dead in the final 50 kilometres.
I remember Roubaix last year, I was commentating on it, and it was difficult to keep the excitement and interest there for our viewers. And if we're struggling as commentators, then imagine what it's like for the viewers.
It is impressive from a performance point of view, to be able to do those huge solo efforts, but the suspense is often over very quickly. The gap will be 30 seconds, then 35, then 30 again, but then suddenly it's 40, 50, a minute, and you still have 35 kilometres to go. That's where it can get a bit disappointing.
That's also why I'm hoping for a big battle on Sunday at the Tour of Flanders. And with Van der Poel and Pogačar both on such top form, we should be in for a big fight.
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"King Kelly", the greatest Irish cyclist to have graced the peloton, brought the Emerald Isle to the fore alongside compatriot Stephen Roche in the 1980s. Points winner at the Tour de France four times, GC in the 1988 Vuelta, and a record-breaking seven consecutive wins at Paris-Nice feature during his glittering career – alongside double victories at Paris-Roubaix, Milan-San Remo and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.