Philippa York analysis: Vingegaard, Pogacar and the Tour de France duel with no room for error

Omne trium perfectum. Everything that comes in threes is perfect, or so ASO wished when they designed the 2023 Tour de France route. Their dreams seem to be coming true.

The second week slog from Clermont-Ferrand to Saint Gervais was presented as three stages for those not concerned by the overall victory and three in the mountains for those that were. 

Quite straightforward, really, if you were in the latter category, as all you had to do was stay out the wind as much as possible, not be involved in any kind of crash and not get caught in a split as tiredness crept into the legs of everyone. Fairly simple tactics if you were at Jumbo-Visma and UAE Team Emirates, as they sat back and watched the squabbling for stages and occasionally took temporary control of proceedings if circumstances called for full attention.

A number of things have become quite clear as the Tour de France has reached the second rest day. Firstly, Jasper Philipsen has, barring accident, got the points jersey pretty much sewn up. Alpecin-Deceuninck are looking after him perfectly and he’s climbing well enough to make the time cuts. 

The king of the mountains jersey and the team classification are far from decided with Neilson Powless replaced by a perky Giulio Ciccone now that the ascents are longer, while Jumbo-Visma back in charge of the yellow helmets after a brief hiatus from Bahrain Victorious and Ineos Grenadiers. 

Things were looking complicated for both teams, but now they have stage wins by Pello Bilbao and Wout Poels and from Michal Kwiatokowski and Carlos Rodriguez, respectively, and they have way less pressure heading into the final week.

Vingegaard and Pogacar: a battle of bonus seconds

Who pulls on the winner’s yellow jersey will be a battle between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar. Anyone else who looked like they could have been involved has been swept aside, as the big two trade blows at each strategic moment. 

They are so closely matched it’s a battle of bonus seconds. The mountain-top finish of Grand Colombier on stage 13 set the tone as UAE Team Emirates rode all day in an effort to set up Pogačar for the win and he did gain eight seconds, but Jumbo-Visma took notes about their rivals and didn’t panic.

They rested Van Aert & Co for a revenge assault the following day when the steep slopes of Col de Joux Plane looked more suited to the yellow jersey who, in theory, would take the bonuses at the top and strike back both mentally and physically. Yet the way Pogačar put the Dane under pressure on terrain theoretically less favourable to him was classic stuff, as was the near track stand as they jockeyed for position in the last metres of the climb.

Sunday’s third successive mountain stage and the last outing before the rest day was another exchange where in one moment it was advantage Jumbo-Visma and then the next UAE Team Emirates pounced and suddenly everything was to play for all over again. 

The suspense is building  with no sign of weakness on either side. Ten seconds is neither here nor there, and both riders know it. One mistake, one moment of hesitation or lapse of attention, and the other rider will pounce. We couldn’t have hoped for a better race.

There are, as always, some fascinating races within the race for the yellow jersey. 

The emergence of Carlos Rodriguez as the Ineos Grenadiers leader gives the team a role to play as, like last year, they watch the top two slug it out from a distance. The British team will have to manage Tom Pidcock’s dip in form carefully, and so will Bora-Hansgrohe now that Jai Hindley is struggling with the effects of his crash. Both of them had been sucked into the Pogačar-Vingegaard fight in the last week but they aren’t at that level this year.

The tussle for the third step on the final podium will be the subplot outside of the big two’s rivalry, as the super domestiques of Adam Yates and Sepp Kuss creep up the standings with every mountainous day and perhaps challenge Rodriguez and Hindley. 

The American’s role has so far been more defensive as Jumbo-Visma assume a defensive position faced with Pogačar’s aggression. That is not necessarily going to be the case in the final week. 

Adam Yates has been consistently brilliant from day one and he continues to be the lieutenant that provokes the most damaging splits in the GC group. The difference from his stint at Ineos Grenadiers couldn’t be more telling, as he seems to be much more motivated at UAE in the service of Pogačar than he was as a designated leader. His twin brother Simon, on the other hand, is going backwards.

My final talking point relates to Wout Van Aert. 

He’s noticeably been given some freedom from team duties in an attempt to win a stage, but he hasn’t been able to do it. It’s partly down to his reputation, which makes any riders with him in the escape reluctant to do even half as much work as him, but there’s also a sense that he’s taking the Jumbo versus UAE physical and mental sparring a little too personally. 

While Vingegaard has his emotions under control, the former green jersey is showing signs of frustration. It’s perfectly understandable – even Cofidis have two stage wins while he has yet to win.