Milan-San Remo 2024 - 5 favourites, 5 outsiders
Our picks for La Primavera, from Van der Poel and Pogacar to Ganna and Pedersen
After Opening Weekend and Strade Bianche brought in the start of the spring Classics season, attention now turns to the first Monument of the year at Milan-San Remo on Saturday.
The famous race, the longest on the calendar, returns for its 115th edition this week, with its route running 288km from a new starting point in Pavia before taking in the usual climbs of the Turchino, three Capi, Cipressa, and the all-important Poggio.
As usual, there's a wide variety of contenders lining up at the start to take on the six-and-a-half-hour challenge, with GC contenders, puncheurs, sprinters, and time triallists all in with a shout of coming to the finish line on Via Roma ahead of the rest.
175 riders from 25 teams will take the start on Saturday morning, though only one will add their name to an honour roll that includes recent champions such as the absent Wout van Aert, demon descender Matej Mohorič, and reigning champion Mathieu van der Poel.
Read on for our look at the contenders, outsiders, and honourable mentions for the win at Milan-San Remo.
5 favourites
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Well, we have to start off with the 2023 winner, really, don't we? As he has for the last two seasons, the Dutch superstar has held off his road season debut until a March meeting in Italy, last year taking in Strade Bianche and Tirreno-Adriatico before storming to a 5.5km solo win here.
Last time out he stuck it out at the front of the race up the Poggio as Tadej Pogačar put in a series of blistering attacks before striking out himself over the top. On the way down the other side, he held off an elite chase including Pogačar, Van Aert, and Filippo Ganna, extending his lead on the flat to become the first Dutch winner since 1985.
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That's one way for him to secure the glory this time out, too, though a frighteningly in-form Pogačar will surely push the envelope even further on the way up to try and get free.
Another tactic, of course, is using his powerful sprint – you'd fancy him in a dash for the line against all the but he purest of fast men, and certainly if he's accompanied to the finish by the men who were chasing him last year.
Van der Poel will enjoy support – and other options – from sprinter Jasper Philipsen and Søren Kragh Andersen. There hasn't been a bunch sprint at the finish since 2016, though, and even if Kragh Andersen has finished among the top 10 for the past three years, he's definitely an outside bet.
Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)
In a race which has been known over the years as a sprinter's Classic more than anything else, the idea that Grand Tour contenders would be among the top favourites is something of an anomaly.
However, Pogačar is no normal Grand Tour racer, having shown time and again that he is a man for the Classics as much as any stage race. And with Milan-San Remo trending ever further away from bunch sprint finishes, the Slovenian becoming only the second Grand Tour winner to win here in almost three decades (Vincenzo Nibali in 2018) is far from a long shot.
He's finished 12th, fifth, and fourth in his opening three participations and once again comes to the start looking to add a win here to his triumphs at three of the other four Monuments.
As the form sheet goes, he's been as good as anyone in 2024, despite competing at only one race day. Due to the nature of the route, an 81km solo ride like he pulled off at Strade Bianche is not at all likely here but expect more repeated attacking and a blistering pace up the Poggio as he and his team seek to dispense with the Classics men as well as the sprinters.
Several other contenders enjoy a stronger sprint than Pogačar, so his best chance of a win remains to break clear over the Poggio, while in Tim Wellens, Brandon McNulty, and Marc Hirschi he can also look to several teammates who have shown good form so far this spring for support.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
One rider who has started the year in flying form is former world champion Mads Pedersen, who has six wins to his name across the Etoile des Bessèges and Tour de la Provence as well as a couple of runner-up spots at Paris-Nice.
As a strong sprinter who can get over the hills and who loves the Classics, Pedersen is almost the perfect archetype for success at Milan-San Remo, though has only started the race twice, delivering two sixth-place finishes in the past two editions.
Pedersen, who says he believes he's "the best I've ever been", is always up there among the cream of the crop over the Poggio, though has tended to follow those pushing the pace rather than leading the way himself. That suits him fine, however, with his sprint finish on paper being a faster one than the likes of Van der Poel, Pogačar, Ganna and plenty of others.
Unlike others, he doesn't need to break free on the Poggio or the run into San Remo, though he'll have to ensure he's among the lead group on the Via Roma regardless. A scenario such as the 17-man sprint his teammate Jasper Stuyven succeeded in three years ago would suit him well.
Stuyven is back this year as part of a squad which can look to multiple potential leaders, with Tirreno-Adriatico double-stage winner Jonathan Milan an option for a large group finish and Strade Bianche runner-up Toms Skujinš at the beginning of what could be a breakthrough spring Classics season.
Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)
Along with Milan, should the race end with a now-rare mass sprint finish, Filippo Ganna is the big home hope for Italian fans, having recorded a career-best second place last March.
The powerful time trial star enjoyed a breakthrough San Remo in 2023, having never placed in the top 50 before, crossing the Poggio among the elite lead group before going long to outsprint Van Aert and Pogačar at the line.
Ganna – who is recovering from a cold suffered at Tirreno-Adriatico – won't be aiming for a sprint of any description on Saturday, however, with the 27-year-old's strengths lying in his slow-twitch power. As such, his best chances of a win would lie in a Cancellara-esque move on the run towards San Remo at the bottom of the Poggio descent.
Cancellara pulled off that special win 16 years ago now, and with solo victories now usually involving a move over the Poggio or down the descent, one from Ganna would be another to last in the memory – in addition to being a now-rare home success.
Ineos Grenadiers can also look to Tom Pidcock as a joint-first option, with the Briton possessing the form (fourth at Strade Bianche and top 10 at Algarve, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Tirreno), the descending skills, a good finish, and the ability to race over the Poggio with the best of them.
One of the breed of multi-disciplinary all-round stars, Pidcock could have his own spot among the favourites here, but for our own self-imposed rule to limit this list to one rider per team. 2017 winner Michał Kwiatkowski is another Ineos Grenadiers option but will likely ride in a support role unless he's flying.
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious)
Another of the Slovenian stars who can excel on multiple terrains, from the hills to the cobbles, Mohorič is the proud owner of the winning trophy after perhaps the most memorable ride in recent Milan-San Remo history.
Perhaps not a top favourite before 2022, the Bahrain Victorious leader placed himself firmly among the elite list of contenders with his dropper post-aided daring descent two years ago.
He crossed the top of the Poggio a few places back from the front and then proceeded to move up and away from the likes of Van der Poel, Pogačar, and Pedersen, even overcoming a briefly dropped chain on the way to grab the win by two seconds.
Given his talent for breakaways and descending, a stab at a similar move looks the best option for a repeat win on Saturday, even if he'll be watched like a hawk should he crest the Poggio among the leaders.
A fifth place at Strade Bianche, albeit over four minutes behind Pogačar, shows he's in good form this month, while his team also has a healthy backup option in the versatile fast finisher, British champion Fred Wright.
Milan-San Remo - 5 outsiders
Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease A Bike)
Visma-Lease A Bike don't have their Classics superstar Wout van Aert at the start line this year, but the Dutch squad can look to two options for success in San Remo in rising sprint star Olav Kooij and European champion Christophe Laporte.
Given his experience (nine previous starts including a couple of 13th places) and good form to start the season, Laporte is perhaps more likely to contend for the win on Saturday. The Frenchman's fast finish and strong Classics showings in recent seasons likely places him as the team's first option.
However, should the race conclude with a mass bunch sprint then Kooij is surely near the top of the list of favourites. The 22-year-old is bang in form, having picked up four sprint wins across the Clásica Almería, UAE Tour and Paris-Nice, and beating the likes of Tim Merlier and Mads Pedersen along the way.
It would certainly be interesting to see how he'd fare in a head-to-head against names like Pedersen, Philipsen, Milan, and Caleb Ewan, even if the prospect of such a large group coming to the finish is less likely than it once was.
Another factor to consider is that surviving the Poggio is one thing, but being at the front and ready to sprint after 288km is another. Kooij has taken on similar distances before (45th at the 271km 2022 Worlds and eighth at the 261km 2023 Gent-Wevelgem) but a San Remo debut, and 20-30km more in the legs is a different proposition.
Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-QuickStep)
In the not-too-distant past, 2019 San Remo winner Alaphilippe could be considered among that 'superstar' class of versatile racers alongside Van der Poel, Pogačar, Van Aert and co. However, the Frenchman has largely endured rather than enjoyed the last two seasons, suffering from injuries, form, and media criticism from his Soudal-QuickStep manager Patrick Lefevere.
Alaphilippe hasn't managed to recapture the soaring heights of the 2018-2021 seasons which saw him briefly contend for the Tour de France, run riot at La Flèche Wallonne, win the rainbow jersey twice in a row, and rack up wins at San Remo and Strade Bianche.
As a result, he's fallen down the pecking order in the list of names one reaches for at races like this, and as a result, he's down at 66/1 (+6600) in the betting odds here – outside the top 10 favourites.
Alaphilippe's 2024 so far hasn't been filled with success, with a sixth overall at the Tour Down Under and a top 10 on stage 4 of Tirreno-Adriatico his best returns of the season. His status as a former winner means he can't be ignored, however, and with his contract up at the end of the year, this spring is surely the time to start performing again.
Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty)
Like other names on our list, Girmay is a versatile sprinter who can survive the hilly days and compete at the finish even if he's not a pure out-and-out finisher. Perfect for Milan-San Remo, then.
The Eritrean has taken part in La Classicissima twice before, finishing 12th and 28th, and hasn't quite yet been among the elite selection over the top of the Poggio, which means he's not quite in the same conversation as Pogačar and Van der Poel this year.
However, we all know Girmay's quality even if he hasn't yet hit the heights of his breakthrough spring two years ago when he won Gent-Wevelgem and a Giro d'Italia stage – the latter memorably ahead of Van der Poel.
Since then, his Intermarché-Wanty have rebuilt largely around the 23-year-old in the past two winters, dispensing with several big contracts and climbing specialists along the way. They, and he, were unfortunate last spring as his Classics season was wrecked by illness, while this year there have been a few positive signs of form, albeit coming back in January in Australia.
Aside from a top-five on stage 4 in Tirreno-Adriatico, Girmay hasn't had much to shout about since that Surf Coast Classic win, but his main goals lie within the next month - beginning with another visit to Liguria on Saturday.
Michael Matthews (Jayco-AlUla)
Matthews is another rider who fits the mould for success at Milan-San Remo – a fast finisher who has the stamina to push at the end of long Classics and also has the strength to get over those late hills among stronger climbers.
He's a perennial contender here, with two podiums and five top 10s to his name across 10 starts and will once again be among those names in the mix for the top placings on the Via Roma.
His podium finishes have come among a group of 26 (in 2015) and a chase group of 23 (in 2020), while two years ago he was third among eight in the sprint behind Mohorič. His best chance at success would be from such a reduced group, providing the attacks on the Poggio ascent and descent can be reigned in.
He's enjoyed a positive start to 2024, recording multiple top 10s at the Volta Valenciana and Paris-Nice, plus a win at the GP Castellón, though he was forced to leave the French race early with a stomach problem.
Caleb Ewan, a two-time runner-up in San Remo, would have been another option for Jayco-AlUla, but he'll miss the race for a second year in a row due to an illness suffered at Paris-Nice.
Benoît Cosnefroy (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
Cosnefroy is a rider who hasn't previously experienced success at Milan-San Remo, with his best result being 22nd at his second participation last year. However, he has started the 2024 season in very good form and as a puncheur, the high pace up the Poggio will suit him well.
The former U23 world champion, racing for the first time in Decathlon AG2R's new 'galaxy' kit, finished sixth at Strade Bianche recently and also won a stage and the overall at the Tour des Alpes-Maritimes, so he surely has the form to be up there.
He's won the GP Quèbec and been on the podium at the Amstel Gold Race, Paris-Tours, and La Flèche Wallonne, but Cosnefroy has never quite challenged for a top placing at a Monument before.
2019 runner-up Oliver Naesen is also an option for the team, though the Belgian hasn't enjoyed a big one-day podium since this race five years ago.
Milan San Remo - honourable mentions
Stefan Küng leads Groupama-FDJ at the race following the winter departure of 2016 winner Arnaud Démare. The Swiss powerhouse has never been in contention at the pointy end of San Remo, racing twice and finishing outside the top 50 on both occasions, though he's a seasoned Classics contender who in theory can be among the leaders on the Poggio, even if a late Cancellara-style attack is his best bet at glory. Second-year pro Laurence Pithie has impressed in various one-day races so far this season and could be another option for the team in a sprint finish.
For Arkéa-B&B Hotels leader Arnaud Démare, a repeat of his win eight seasons ago looks something of a distant prospect. The Frenchman hasn't won at WorldTour level since 2022 and has only once troubled the top of the standings in the last five years. Still, as a former winner, he can never be discounted.
Fellow Frenchman Anthony Turgis is never the first name one reaches for as a top Classics contender, but the 29-year-old has shown he has the ability, if not the consistency to compete for wins at this level. The TotalEnergies leader, still searching for a breakthrough WorldTour-level win, was second here two years ago and also has podiums at Dwars door Vlaanderen and Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne to his name.
Veteran Italian racer Matteo Trentin leads the charge for Swiss wildcard squad Tudor Pro Cycling. The 34-year-old has a handful of 10th places to his name here, and some good early season results (top 10s at Omloop and two stages at Paris-Nice, plus third at Almería) show he's far from a spent force.
Another former winner among seven on the start line in Pavia, Uno-X Mobility leader Alexander Kristoff is built for races like Milan-San Remo. Now in his 15th year in the peloton and a decade on from his reduced sprint victory at a grim seven-hour edition, the 36-year-old can never be dismissed as a contender, even if he last troubled the top spots six years ago with a fourth-place finish.
Israel-Premier Tech can look to a pair of outsiders to lead them into Milan-San Remo this year, as 37-year-old Australian Simon Clarke starts alongside a New Zealander 14 years his junior in Corbin Strong. Clarke has a top 10 at this race on his palmarès, while the versatile and quick Strong is breaking through with a series of positive results that suggest he's one for the Classics in future (second at the GP Québec, fourth at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, among others).
EF Education-EasyPost may have a home favourite and Monument winner in their ranks in Alberto Bettiol, with the Italian set to lead the US team after rising Classics star Neilson Powless missed out on selection despite being on the preliminary squad list. Bettiol is in form, having soloed to victory at Milano-Torino recently.
Milan-San Remo start list
Dani Ostanek is Senior News Writer at Cyclingnews, joining in 2017 as a freelance contributor and later being hired full-time. Before joining the team, they had written for numerous major publications in the cycling world, including CyclingWeekly and Rouleur.
Dani has reported from the world's top races, including the Tour de France, Road World Championships, and the spring Classics. They have interviewed many of the sport's biggest stars, including Mathieu van der Poel, Demi Vollering, and Remco Evenepoel. Their favourite races are the Giro d'Italia, Strade Bianche and Paris-Roubaix.
Season highlights from the 2024 season include reporting from Paris-Roubaix – 'Unless I'm in an ambulance, I'm finishing this race' – Cyrus Monk, the last man home at Paris-Roubaix – and the Tour de France – 'Disbelief', gratitude, and family – Mark Cavendish celebrates a record-breaking Tour de France sprint win.
