It’s game on at the Tour de France after Pogačar and Vingegaard clash in Le Lioran - Philippa York Analysis

That half a wheel that separated Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar might as well have been half a mile. It was hugely symbolic. 

It is remarkable that Vingegaard is at the Tour de France, even more so that he is competitive. It was astonishing that he was the strongest rider at the finish, after a long haul through the hills and mountains of the Massif Central. Then to see the Dane out-sprint Pogačar to win stage 11 in Le Lioran showed that the Slovenian is right to fear and respect his biggest rival. What a race we have.

Stage 11 was always going to be difficult and it was made doubly so by the circumstances of what came before and after it. The breakaway was never going to succeed on stage 10 while stage 12 would surely see the sprint teams control the escapees on the ride south.

In between was one of the longest stages of the race, on terrain where it’s up and down all the time, it’s hot and humid, with bonus seconds on the penultimate climb to boot. Basically it was ambush country and UAE Team Emirates thought it was a good one to grind down everyone, isolate the respective leaders and let Pogačar do his thing. 

The intention to test Vingegaard was clear from the start and the looks on the riders' faces as they hauled themselves across the finish line told the story of the suffering they had been through. 

The climbs weren’t the most famous but from experience, I can say that they are amongst my least favourite places to be. Particularly the final kilometres of Pas de Peyrol. I wasn’t surprised to see Tadej Pogačar attack, there’s something about that section which sucks the life out of you. No one was expected to be able to go with or chase him down but Vingegaard did. 

That Vingegaard stayed seated and allowed Primož Roglič to attempt the first pursuit was a very wise decision. He didn’t go into the red as he would have done if he had followed Pogačar’s attack and ultimately that saved him. 

Why? Because I don’t think Pogačar ever fully recovered from that acceleration and the false flat after the summit didn’t allow him to do so properly. 

There was a hint of the 2022 Tour and the Col du Granon where Pogačar struggled or forgot to feed correctly. Did he misjudge his nutrition and especially his hydration? He seemed very weary on the Col de Petrus and in the sprint to the line.

In contrast, Vingegaard initially benefited from some help on the descent and with the chase from Roglič and he looked to be more mindful of his energy requirements. He was climbing one gear bigger than Pogačar and able to get out of the saddle when he needed to. The race leader on the other hand was looking back, breathing more heavily and didn’t have the same fluidity as usual. 

Did he ease up at the top of the climb? Perhaps but whatever happened, Vingegaard closed a ten-second gap in just 500 metres. UAE might say Pogačar knew his rival was coming and decided to recover and then make sure he took the time bonuses at the top, but at that moment he looked worried. 

A more confident Vingegaard would or could have attacked and that is one of the lessons that Visma-Lease a Bike will take from a day where they thought they might lose time but eventually won.

UAE Team Emirates should change their tactics

Now, as the race heads towards the Pyrenean weekend and two proper summit finishes, it’s evident that Vingegaard is back in the game and has Pogačar rattled. Both want a third Tour de France on their palmares and it’s looking likely that the contest will be a lot closer than we initially speculated.

Behind them Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel are locked in a battle for the third spot on GC. It is developing into an interesting contrast of styles. Roglič wants to follow the top two but can’t and Evenepoel has learnt not to even try, preferring to stay within his limits. 

The white jersey wearer has the advantage of experienced teammate Mikel Landa doing what he usually does as the race progresses. He could be a huge factor and offer crucial support if circumstances align nicely for Soudal-Quick Step and their young talent. 

At Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, concerns have to be mounting over the support Roglič needs when the front group is reduced to less than twenty souls. Jai Hindley ought to be part of that selection but sadly he’s not been so far. 

After Vingegaard beat Pogačar, UAE Team Emirates also have to reset their tactics and team support plans. 

They now know just how good Vingegaard is and the threat he is. When they thought he would be weakening, he is becoming stronger. 

Burning up the likes of Adam Yates and Joao Almeida for an announced Pogačar attack, no longer looks like such a good idea.  Juan Ayuso falling down the rankings tells us that he’s been worn out prematurely. 

With some big climbing days to come the team has to look to pass some of the pressures onto Visma and Vingegaard. It would be better to put pressure on them by sending riders on the attack or to infiltrate a breakaway. UAE Team Emirates have three riders in the top ten and so can be creative and aggressive. 

Whatever happens the intrigue and suspense of this fascinating Tour de France will continue, perhaps to the very end in Nice. That would make it a race for the ages. 

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