How Matteo Jorgenson and Visma-Lease a Bike dominated Paris-Nice despite Jonas Vingegaard's crash – Philippa York analysis

No doubt when the 47th President of the United States is informed of his compatriots’ double success in Nice after a week of racing he’ll be wishing the race had finished a few hundred metres earlier on the Quai des États-Unis before reaching the Promenade des Anglais, or calling for the location to be forever known as La Promenade des Américains.

Thinking that they strolled down to the Mediterranean from the capital teaching the Frenchies a few lessons along the way would certainly bring some colour to his cheeks, but any news of dissent or pesky details would be hastily ignored. Paris-Nice history records showing American Matteo Jorgenson taking his second overall title and Magnus Sheffield the final day’s honours would be all that mattered. 

Thankfully for those of us with a penchant for minutiae, the 83rd edition of the Race to the Sun had lots of interesting points to chew over. 

Unlike a regular Paris-Nice, the first two stages passed off with no sidewinds, no big splits and only a few falls despite the obstacle course that racing near the capital usually brings.

Sprint success for Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep) on both occasions cemented his standing as one of the fastest sprinters but the main takeaway was the constant presence of Visma-Lease a Bike on the front. Always attentive, picking off bonus seconds when the opportunity presented itself, the Dutch squad was clearly here to win with either of their leaders, Jorgenson or Jonas Vingegaard. 

Day three and the Magny-Cours team time trial reshuffled the GC standings, Jorgenson in yellow with Vingegaard just behind, Ben O’Connor (Jayco AlUla) at 20 seconds, Aleksandr Vlasov and Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) at 30, Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and the Ineos possé at almost 40 seconds. Visma-Lease a Bike had a definite option for the overall even before they entered the terrain better suited to their top men.

The next day though, snow descended on the race and the first uphill finish became a survival of the warmest after a race neutralisation had thoroughly frozen everyone. Initially, it looked like Vingegaard was going to dominate with a trademark acceleration in the final 3km but the cold had gotten into him too and he couldn’t stop the surprise return of João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) inside the last 50 metres. Jorgenson suffered and lost the lead to his teammate, but UAE were back in the fight again after a disastrous TTT. 

However, things weren't entirely harmonious, as Brandon McNulty and Almeida struggled for synergy on the final climb. The former rode on the front whilst the eventual stage winner was poorly positioned at the foot of the climb. A theme for how the Portuguese star tends to ride and one he would pay for later.

Stage 5 was a typical Paris-Nice day in central France. Up and down all day, cold, miserable, attacks left right and centre. Vingegaard crashed and was left lurking at the back of the peloton nursing a facial injury and a left wrist unable to brake or take his full weight. With Vingegaard unable to stand on the pedals, Jorgenson took command and rode very much in the style of Miguel Indurain – from the front, high tempo and follow if you can. 

Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) followed best and mustered up a sprint to take victory from him on the day, with the French celebrating a 1-2 through Clément Champoussin (XDS-Astana). Two guys from XDS-Astana in the first four on the day showed they might not be in the GC battle but they were going to collect UCI points when they could in the ongoing relegation fight. 

Three days to go and Jorgenson was back in the race lead. Vingegaard was looking broken and Lipowitz and Almeida were lurking but everyone was talking about little Martinez’s chances with the bigger mountains to come. 

Riding a GC race at Paris-Nice is as much about concentration as it is about having the form and the 209km of stage 6 proved the point exactly. Five degrees, rain bouncing off the ground and a dodgy descent awaited, and the circumstances were seized upon by the whole Visma-Lease a Bike team, minus Vingegaard who wisely abandoned.

Ineos, who were planning a similar attack, bridged across and suddenly it was panic stations behind. Echelons formed, and with everyone in rain gear, no one was quite sure who was where, but it quickly became apparent that the 16 in front were gone. The GC was being decided, and there was nothing those behind could do. 

Visma and Ineos had the firepower of Victor Campanaerts and Josh Tarling, with all parties interested in maintaining the gap. UAE missing out was a major mistake on their part as Almeida and McNulty lost nearly two minutes but it was Martinez who learned the toughest lesson with more than eight minutes conceded.

Meanwhile, Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) was in full flow. There were indications he was good before but winning after such a hard stage was a warning for the coming Classics, narrowly outsprinting an impressive Tarling, who's another one to watch for the cobbles. 

The rain persisted on Saturday, with cold conditions on the climb to Auron which almost had a similar fate last year when adverse weather caused a complete modification to the day. Just shortened this time, but it was still about staying focused and surviving the road inland from the coast.

The day's break fought it out for the win and it was another face long-unseen from the front of big races that triumphed amid the snow, Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling). In the GC group a minute behind, Jorgenson stayed in control of the situation and would have been unperturbed by the few seconds gained by Lipowitz in the sprint.

The traditional last stage around Nice is a complicated affair to control, so thankfully the sun finally appeared. Not warm but at least dry.

Visma had dealt with everything thrown at them in the week with great control, but there are limits, and on this terrain, the race leader found himself isolated mid-stage. Red Bull provoked that situation before Ineos took over in the final hour. Up until this point, their aggressive tactics hadn’t always worked out but when Sheffield attacked with 34km to go, all that changed.

Jorgenson didn’t need to chase his compatriot and Lipowitz, who had Vlasov ahead, didn’t want to expose himself to the counter which would have come from Sheffield's teammate Thymen Arensman. Storer and Almeida were hanging on and everyone else was wishing the pace would relent. That wasn’t going to happen and things got even more desperate when the race leader attacked the GC group and closed in on Sheffield and Co on the last climb, the Côte des Quatre Chemins.

Things were looking bleak for Sheffield as Jorgenson initially closed the gap but then, as the gradient steepened, the yellow jersey-wearer suffered too. By the summit, the gap was back to 30 seconds, which made the descent back into Nice a bit more comfortable though not totally as Jorgenson was faster downhill. For the other GC places, Lipowitz and Arensman traded blows for the podium which ultimately came to nothing and Storer and Almeida were overtaken by the stage winner Sheffield.

The main conclusions after eight days of hard racing

Jorgenson further cemented his place as an essential part of the Visma GC line-up that will support Vingegaard for the Tour de France. He’s developed into the Indurain mould of rider: a solid pace-setter who climbs well, with a strong TT and the tactical awareness to back it up.

Vingegaard, contrastingly, knows he has work to do on his form but his crash and ultimately leaving the Paris Nice should not be overly influential in his build-up to the summer races and his face-off with Tadej Pogačar in July.

The Ineos squad’s transition to more aggressive tactics is beginning to pay off. Tobias Foss, Tarling, Sheffield and Arensman influenced the racing most days, and with the Classics coming, things are looking up for them. Three riders in the top 10 on GC shows a big step back towards their former best.

UAE's team selection at Paris Nice lacked cohesion – Almeida was inconsistent and McNulty wasn’t at the expected level. Poor weather might be their excuse, however, in the absence of Pogačar, they lacked the clarity and quality needed to beat Visma.

For the other GC hopefuls at the start of the week, Ben O’Connor will be disappointed after a nightmare race, however, especially after Jayco AlUla's great performance in the TTT. 

Lenny Martinez came, saw, conquered one climb and fell apart by the end. It’ll be a few more years before he’s resistant enough for this kind of challenge. 

Florian Lipowitz raised his GC stock again after a solid race, just below the level of Jorgenson on most terrains he seems to be coming up as Vlasov goes down Red Bull's hierarchy. 

Lidl-Trek will be buoyed by how well Skjelmose was going before he crashed out from third overall, with Pedersen's vast versatility featuring throughout the eight stages. The latter should star in the Classics and the former will be relieved to have escaped major injury.

Tudor had a great week with Storer seemingly returning to the form we saw at the Vuelta in 2021 when he took two stage wins, with the help of Julian Alaphilippe proving invaluable in the breakaway before his victory in Auron. Fifth overall would have exceeded expectations.

Outside of GC ambitions, Merlier and Soudal-QuickStep did exactly what they had to, winning two sprint stages and again highlighting the brilliance of the Belgian sprinter and his lead-out train, led by Bert Van Lerberghe.

XDS-Astana continued to collect UCI points in the week-long stage races, with Champoussin and Tejada picking up a big haul thanks to several stage top-10s and finishing seventh and eighth overall.

Visma-Lease a Bike were again the dominant force at the Race to the Sun, led by Nice local Jorgenson, who claimed their third title in four years at one of the most prestigious one-week races on the calendar. He's some way off of Sean Kelly's tally of seven GC wins at Paris-Nice but Jorgenson proved again that he is perfectly suited to the trials and tribulations that present themselves on the route south from France's capital.