'Paris-Roubaix is one of the few races where watts per kilo don't decide everything' - Luke Rowe on Pogačar, Van der Poel and the tactical battle ahead

Luke Rowe will return to Paris-Roubaix for an eleventh time on Sunday. He is no longer the Ineos Grenadiers road captain but will try to use his experience of the cobbles and Spring Classics to challenge Tadej Pogačar, Mathieu van der Poel and Mads Pedersen as a directeur sportif in the Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale team car.

Like every directeur sportif in the professional peloton, Rowe has been trying to understand how his riders can perform well at this year's Paris-Roubaix, what impact Pogačar will have on the race and who will actually win in the Roubaix velodrome on Sunday afternoon.  

"There's no reason Pogi can't win the race," Rowe tells Cyclingnews, sharing his well-thought-out analysis and personal favourite for victory.    

"Pogačar wouldn't be on the start line if he didn't believe he could win it. But for me, there's one out-and-out favourite above everyone else and that's Mathieu van der Poel. Pogačar is a generational talent but Mathieu is made for Paris-Roubaix in every possible way."

The Hell of the North holds few secrets for Rowe even if he is about to make his debut as a directeur sportif. He finished 22nd in the 2008 Junior race, when Great Britain teammate Andy Fenn beat Peter Sagan. On his 2013 Paris-Roubaix professional debut, Luke was 109th, rolling in among one of the last groups to finish inside the time limit. Just two years later he took his best result, finishing eighth, 28 seconds down on winner John Degenkolb.    

Understanding the secrets of Paris-Roubaix requires years of experience. Riding the cobbled sectors is a cycling art and a love of the pain and suffering involved is vital, as is understanding the impact of the wind on the race and so positioning, strategy and teamwork.    

Rowe recently led a Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Paris-Roubaix recon ride from the team car after using the Grand Prix de Denain on March 20 as a vital test race on the French pave'. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will do a final recon ride on part of the Paris-Roubaix but the tyre and wheel choices for their Van Rysel bikes have already been made.

"We talk about the Spring Classics under one umbrella but Paris-Roubaix is a completely different race," Rowe suggests.  

"Almost every cobbled Classic includes short, punchy climbs but there aren't any climbs in Paris-Roubaix.

"The strongest ten guys in the Tour of Flanders usually fight for the podium but if you look at the Paris-Roubaix results there is always a surprise in there, an outsider who produces a great ride and result. There is often a surprise loser too, who crashes out or blows up. And that could even be Pogačar."

"Paris-Roubaix is one of the few races where watts per kilo don't decide everything. It's a slightly less explosive, so more drawn-out race. It's a battle of smart-thinking survival, tactics and then power."

Rowe is well aware it could rain on Sunday but knows the cobbles could soon dry out in the expected mild and spring-like conditions. He is more concerned about the wind direction than the risk of showers, with a southeasterly likely to mean a tailwind until the Forest of Arenberg and then possible cross-tail winds on the exposed later sectors of cobbles.  

"It's probably going to be a very dry, very fast, very dusty, stereotypical Paris-Roubaix," Rowe predicts.  

"This race is heavily dependent on the wind, its strength and the direction. It's fundamental and it makes the race. Last year the peloton split after the second or third sector of cobbles. If the wind is in the right direction, it'll happen again.

"The riders aren't afraid to race 150-kilometre finals now, so what happens on Sunday and when the race breaks open is purely dependent on the wind. It could be super early, that's why I expect Van der Poel to emerge as the winner for a second year."

'If you fear the big riders ... there's almost no point in starting'

Rowe made the unexpected decision to leave Ineos Grenadiers for Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale last summer after a serious concussion during the E3 Saxo Classic.

He was never able to race again and was attracted by a new challenge as the French team changed management and philosophy as part of a long-term strategy to become an international super team.  

"I'm eager to bring my experience from the years spent at the highest level and to support the riders, especially in the Classics," he said when announcing his move, later admitting he was scared he would be unable to make a change at Ineos due to the team's complex level of management and decision making.  

"The team had big ambitions for the next few years and that excites me," Rowe tells Cyclingnews.

"It's not just this 2025 Classics campaign, it's about thinking ahead and being critical of yourself after every race. How can we be better as a Classics group, as an organisation, as individual riders, as team staff and with our equipment? How can we improve everything? It's not just about the here and now, it's about where we want to be in one, three and five years."

Rowe has kept a low profile as he follows a steep learning curve as leading directeur-sportif.

"My role has changed and I've changed teams too, so that's two huge changes, but I'm enjoying it," he explains.  

"My time as a rider is over and I'm happy to be on the other side of the fence and be in the team car. My experience as a rider has helped me but there have been a lot of things I've had to learn, for example about bike tech and nutrition. But it's like anything, if you listen and keep your nose to the ground you pick it up pretty quick."  

Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale have not enjoyed the same break-out performances of 2024 but the Classics group has secured some results despite some illness and injuries.

Danish national champion Rasmus Pedersen was 13th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and went on the attack during Dwars door Vlaanderen, while Dries De Bondt was third in the sprint behind Matt Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike) at the Grand Prix de Denain and then seventh at Dwars door Vlaanderen. Aurélien Paret-Peintre and new signing Stefan Bissegger were in the front chase group at the Tour of Flanders.

Road captain Oliver Naesen, however, was forced to miss the Tour of Flanders due to illness but may still tackle Paris-Roubaix.

"They're a good bunch of lads and we're trying to get the most out of them and see how we can achieve success, whatever that success might be," Rowe says.

"It's tougher in this year's Classics because there's Pogačar, Van der Poel, Pedersen and perhaps [Wout] Van Aert, who are just on another level and have super strong teams to back them too."

Still, Rowe always loved a fight as a rider, whatever the odds, and is trying to pass on that determination to his riders.        

"If you fear the big riders, if you go into Paris-Roubaix with that mentality, then there's almost no point in starting the race," he says bluntly.  

"We know they're good, we know they're strong but if the stars align, maybe they can be beaten. It's balancing that with optimism and saying: 'What can we do to give ourselves the best opportunity for success?'"

"Paris-Roubaix is a good opportunity for us. We've got some good guys who could perform. Can we win the thing and take on Pogačar? I'm not sure. But can we come close? I don't see why not.

"A result at Paris-Roubaix is possible for us because it's such a crazy race."