Cyclingnews predicts: Our writers offer their views on this year's Tour de France

Jumbo-Visma’s Primoz Roglic and defending champion Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) are set to do battle over the three weeks of the 2020 Tour de France

Jumbo-Visma’s Primoz Roglic and defending champion Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) – both pictured at this year’s Critérium du Dauphiné – are set to do battle over the three weeks of the 2020 Tour de France (Image credit: Bettini Photo)

What's a sporting event without a few opinions and predictions – no matter how outrageous? The 2020 Tour de France is finally upon us, the questionnaire has been sent around the globe to Cyclingnews' writers, reporters and editors, and this is what they've come back with.

Do you agree with our podium picks, or despair at our classification-jersey favourites? Is there perhaps a rider that we've failed to mention, but who you believe will emerge as a contender, or at least a future contender?

My head says Bernal, and my heart says Pinot, but Dumoulin greatly impressed as the recent Critérium du Dauphiné wore on. He enters the race with little pressure, and while he's untested over three weeks since 2018, I just worry about any rider, in this case Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma), who took a heavy fall this close to the race. To back up my Dumoulin claim with scientific fact, and in no way pure superstition, he was also on the cover of Procycling's Tour de France preview issue.

Martin took an unusual path out of the under-23 ranks after winning a stage in the Tour de l'Avenir, and with four years in the Pro Continental ranks with Wanty Gobert, he's finally come home to a French team and settled in nicely with Cofidis in their first season back at WorldTour level since 2009. His old Belgian squad gave him ample experience and room to grow, and I'm sure he's ready for his class to show through in the Tour de France at last. He was there every day with the best in the Dauphiné, finishing third overall. His team has dual ambitions with Elia Viviani, so he might not be the sole focus, but Martin's enough of an opportunist to make it work.

As the defending champion, Bernal heads into an especially mountainous edition of the Tour de France, which caters to his abilities as one of the best climbers in the world. Ineos Grenadiers' decision to leave Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas off their roster makes this year's team a little bit of an unknown. They have a strong team with Pavel Sivakov and a late addition with Richard Carapaz, but Bernal has admitted that he is not fully recovered from his back injury. Bernal is the leader of the team, and rightfully so, but if Carapaz is in good form and finds an opportunity for himself, he just might take it.

Predictions are a mug's game at the best of times, and even more so this year, but if you put a gun to my head, I'd tell you that Roglič's crash won't seriously hamper his dazzling form, that he has a quality team and Grand Tour-winning experience to go the distance, and that Bernal won't gain quite enough time in the final week to make up for the damage Roglič will inflict when he inevitably wins the final TT.

This is so tough to call, as I could name nearly 20 riders who wouldn't look out of place in the top 10. Dumoulin has been building nicely, and while it's not the best route for him, I can see him riding consistently before overhauling a climber or two in that time trial. I fancy Pogačar to come good after his shaky post-lockdown return, while Buchmann would have been flirting with my podium until his Dauphiné crash made him a little harder to predict. Carapaz can have a real impact on this race, Lopez has the class to fend off more headline-grabbing riders, and Landa will do a Landa.

Dani Martínez and Guillaume Martin don't really feel like surprises after the Dauphiné, so how about Adam Yates? No one's talking about him because he's not talking about himself, but, on his day, he's one of the top climbers in the world and, after two disappointing Tours, maybe not really thinking about the GC is what will actually take him back into the top 10. Watch him sit up and lose 20 minutes on stage 1.

I don't see one in particular dominating. I'd be surprised if Ewan, Sam Bennett (Deceuninck-QuickStep) or Nizzolo left without a win, and I could see Viviani nabbing one, too. With a fair few stages that could go the way of reduced-bunch sprints, there may not be too much room for domination, but, if pressed, I'd back Bennett to edge it given he handles the hills better than Ewan and, even in the absence of favoured lead-out man Shane Archbold, will have the strongest lead-out.

I'll go for a boring prediction of an eighth green jersey for Sagan. I reckon Van Aert could top him, but while he should get the green light to go for a stage win or two, he won't have the freedom to go for random intermediate sprints. Similarly, if Davide Formolo (UAE Team Emirates) doesn't have to stick by Pogačar's side too much, then he's in the form of his life and could grab the polka-dots. I've put Bernal in second place, so he's automatically my white jersey, and then Jumbo-Visma for the teams' prize and Alaphilippe the super combatif, if you're asking.

If the Tour ends up being cut short, all bets are off, but if the race goes the distance, it's hard to look past Bernal. The longer the race goes on – and the higher it climbs – the better he will be. Concerns about his team's strength are overstated given that Ineos were hardly dominant last year. I don't imagine his declared back injury will be an issue, either. Pinot will again be very, very good, but the stars won't quite align. Dumoulin will continue his promising comeback and lay down a marker for 2021, when he might eventually find a more amenable Tour route.

Quintana and Roglič are contenders for overall victory but it all depends on how well they have recovered from their pre-Tour injuries. The same goes for Buchmann. Pogačar looked like a man hitting his stride at just the right moment at the Dauphiné. Martin has the form to make the top 10, even if a stage win is his avowed target. Landa will dig himself an early hole and then entertain as he claws his way back out, albeit without ever threatening Bernal et al. I've left out Julian Alaphilippe because he insists the GC is not a target, although I still wonder if lightning might strike twice…

I'm not sure if a Giro winner qualifies as a surprise, but I don't think Ineos have selected Carapaz entirely out of desperation. At worst, he'll be a very useful lieutenant for Bernal, but he has the potential to be much more. His attacking instincts and his eye for the right opening offer Ineos something different to Geraint Thomas or Chris Froome. He might be just what they need to disrupt the Jumbo-Visma train on this Tour.

My past attempts as a prognosticator have been with major league baseball and NASCAR fantasy leagues – I'm from the south of the US and have roots in stock-car racing – and I typically fall for most-liked over most-probable picks. I have to go with some usual suspects for the GC, even though some of those are battered and bruised, so I'm siding with the Ineos Grenadiers and Jumbo-Visma for a 1-2 punch on top of the podium. The first week may wreck this plan, but I'm looking for Roglič and Bernal to be healthy. And I have to put a sentimental French favourite on the podium, so Pinot gets the nod.

More than anything, I want Pinot to win, but unfortunately I feel his legs were proven to be below the performance of Roglič and Bernal at the Dauphiné before they both abandoned, but the French will rally behind the Groupama-FDJ man and he'll repay the fandom with a fight to the end. Julian Alaphilippe's insistence that he's not out for a GC battle will be proven early, but he'll win stages aplenty.

Daniel Martínez will be the strongest within the EF Pro Cycling squad, and, with both Urán and Higuita, will prove a formidable force. I expect another strong ride from Bora-Hansgrohe's Emmanuel Buchmann, but, for me, the youthful Movistar duo of Enric Mas and Marc Soler will fall foul of the ever-present internal battle, and both they and Alejandro Valverde will fall agonisingly outside of the top 10, whilst still winning the teams classification.

Part of me thinks that Roglič likely won't fade during the race, while another part of me hopes we're not just in for a three-week continuation of The Roglič Show. I'm going to go with a fade, and install Pinot as the first French winner since 1985. Only Roglič got the better of him on the early stages at the Dauphiné, while last July he took time on Bernal on every mountain stage before his injury. If Pinot stays healthy and avoids another crosswind catastrophe (he lost 1:40 in Albi last year), he can do it.

This might be the hardest of all the questions because you can argue for pretty much every man to make the top five. Realistically, you could throw a few more names into the mix, too. Quintana will hopefully be fully over his knee troubles, while Dumoulin should get better and better, even if the course isn't 100 per cent suited to him. Buchmann is the real wildcard here, depending on how he recovers from his Dauphiné crash early on. Then some further questions remain, such as: will Carapaz be on top form? And will Landa and López be consistent over three weeks?

There aren't any real surprises in my top 10, but the EF's Colombian trio of Rigoberto Urán, Daniel Martínez and Sergio Higuita could fit. The latter, younger duo have impressed at shorter stage races, but Higuita's 14th at the 2019 Vuelta a España is their top Grand Tour result so far. Urán, meanwhile, took second at the Tour in 2017 but his anonymous ride at the Dauphiné doesn't suggest a repeat of that result.

There's not exactly a wealth of sprint stages at this Tour – there are maybe five nailed-on flat sprints and only one after stage 10. Peter Sagan has the ability and experience to take another green jersey, but in terms of pure sprinters, I'll back Caleb Ewan to be the best of the lot once again, even against Sam Bennett and the best lead-out in the world. It's just a shame that Sunweb have inexplicably left out eight-time Grand Tour stage winner and green jersey candidate Michael Matthews.

Bernal will take white, obviously, although Pogačar, Sivakov, the EF boys and David Gaudu show that there's a wealth of young GC talent in the race. I wanted to include the in-form Guillaume Martin in my GC top 10, but polka-dots would go well with his red shorts and De Rosa bike, while he can also grab Cofidis' first Tour stage win since 2008. Jumbo-Visma should take the team prize, and finally European road race champion Giacomo Nizzolo and B&B Hotels-Vital Concept take my prize for the most stylish jerseys.

Even with a bit of a mountain to climb – pun very much intended – when it comes to recovering from his injuries sustained at the Critérium du Dauphiné, Roglič's performances so far this year suggest that he really will be the rider to beat. If the stars align, I believe that Pinot could take second place – and a lot of people would like to see him take a home win if said stars get really straight – while Bernal will complete the podium, and reveal in Paris that his sore back was killing him all along.

I see some lieutenants – like Dumoulin for Roglič, if the roles aren't reversed – and Sivakov for Bernal being strong enough to bag top 10s for themselves, while Quintana may just miss out on the podium, Martin looks almost certain to further impress, Tour first-timers Higuita and Pogačar look strong enough to take a high finish, and Porte will push hard but won't quite much his best finish of fifth from 2016.

For those who've been following the sport closely this year, it may not be that surprising to see the emerging Guillaume Martin ride to a top-five finish at this year's race, but there could be plenty of members of the French public who are surprised to see a stage-hunting Romain Bardet replaced in their affections by Martin, and two Frenchmen (Pinot being the other one) potentially finishing in the top five for the first time since 2014.

I'm hoping for a good, clean – and sanitary – race on what could be one of the toughest parcours for some years. Add in the fact that most of the riders haven't raced anywhere close to as many days as they normally would have coming into the Tour, and I'm looking forward to witnessing some desperate, out-and-out racing and some wild, never-imagined performances from riders we perhaps know relatively little about at this point. Let the daily soap opera on wheels begin.

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Cyclingnews predicts: Our writers offer their views on this year's Tour de France

Daniel Benson, editor-in-chief

Laura Weislo, deputy editor

Kirsten Frattini, women's editor

Patrick Fletcher, features editor

Barry Ryan, European editor

Jackie Tyson, production editor (North America)

Josh Croxton, senior tech writer

Daniel Ostanek, staff writer

Ellis Bacon, production editor (Australia)

Stephen Farrand, European Editor

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