Bouncebacks and bunch sprints – 5 storylines to watch at the UAE Tour

From Australia and Argentina in January to Africa and Asia in February, the international road season has been globe-trotting for quite some time now, prior to settling down into the more predictably Euro-centric schedule for much of the rest of the season.

But before that shift towards western Europe, the UAE Tour brings down the curtain on the first part of the season, with World Champion Remco Evenepoel the top-name racer for the overall classification for the Middle East's only WorldTour event.

As we saw in the inaugural women's race earlier this month, the overall battle is likely – barring crashes or crosswinds – to be decided in the two summit finishes and the team time trial, back after a four-year hiatus, there's plenty more to enjoy in the seven-day stage race.

Four ultra-flat stages on mostly broad, well-surfaced highways make this, as Astana sprinter Mark Cavendish has observed, "a bit of a World Championships for sprinters."

And apart from Cavendish himself, the presence of a plethora of top fastmen including Sam Bennett (Bora-Hansgrohe), Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny), Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco-AlUla) and Fernando Gaviria (Movistar) and Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quick Step) all but ensures some epic bunch sprint battles.

Ahead of the race, Cyclingnews looks at some of the narratives likely to feature in the Middle East's only WorldTour event.

Remco Evenepoel looks for first win in rainbow jersey

Ever since Remco Evenepoel turned pro he's been in the media spotlight and just like at the Vuelta a España last year, a small army of Belgian cycling journalists is expected to descend on the UAE Tour to sate their compatriots' voracious appetite for Evenepoel stories. Their dream home scenario, of course, would be if the UAE saw Evenepoel claim his first win in the rainbow bands.

How likely that is to happen, though, is hard to predict. Evenepoel's last visit to the UAE Tour in 2019 as a neo-pro saw him shine on the Jebel Hafeet then quit after a bad crash, and his one race to date, at the Vuelta a San Juan, was a mixed bag of team success and a costly miscalculation of his own efforts on the Alto Colorado.

But then again, at San Juan his role was as much about helping in-house sprinter Tim Merlier to stage wins as it was about looking for victory in his own right. In UAE, his GC goals are likely going to take greater priority.

An individual time trial, rather than the TTT now programmed for stage 2, would have been ideal for Evenepoel to claim that first rainbow jersey victory. But in any case, the two long, steady, smooth, climbs to Jebel Jais and Jebel Hafeet are ideal for Evenepoel's climbing talents, given he's not such a huge fan of ultra-steep ascents, and either could well be where he raises his arms for the first time this year.

If not, then the next opportunity will be in the Volta a Catalunya, in a month's time, where he will be taking on Giro d'Italia contender Primož Roglič. If Evenepoel can have a UAE title under his arm to match Roglic's title from the 2019 race then nobody in Belgium, least of all the cycling media, will be complaining.

Who will win the team time trial?

Outside the Vuelta a España and Tirreno-Adriatico, team time trials have become increasingly uncommon on the WorldTour schedule. And for that reason alone, the relative rarity value of the UAE TTT, back on the race program for the first time since 2019's opening edition, would make it worth watching.

It's also likely to produce more than a few upsets and knock-on effects for GC, too. Held on a very flat, very fast course with only a very few broad bends, the TT specialists will be in their element on the Khalifa Port course, the UAE's main deepwater facility for its marine trade.

But before taking the plunge on the 17.2km course, it's worth remembering as TTT team is only strong as the weakest rider, and at such a high speed, course there will be no hiding places for those GC specialists who are unlucky or vulnerable against the clock.

So this year's TTT on stage 2 will likely establish a hierarchy between the GC racers that could prove vital to different squads' subsequent strategies for the mountains.

To take 2019 as an example, Jumbo-Visma clinched the win on a slightly shorter, 16km course where the fastest and slowest WorldTour teams were separated by a minute, and Primož Roglič clinched the lead – which he then successfully defended all the way to the final stage. Will a similar scenario play out in 2023?

No Pogacar but Adam Yates debuts for UAE

The absence of Tadej Pogačar for the first time since 2019 in the UAE Tour leaves a significant vacuum. But if anybody else has proved he has the measure of the race's GC battle over the years that would have to be Adam Yates, making his debut for Pogačar's squad in their home race.

The winner of the curtailed version in 2020, Yates has finished second overall to Pogačar in the last two editions as well as taking a notable lone victory at Jebel Hafeet, the race's most decisive climb ahead of the Slovenian three years ago.

Putting Yates at the head of the UAE squad is a logical choice, then, and the Briton can count on what is, on paper, one of the strongest squads for this year's race, with Jay Vine and Brandon McNulty also serious options for the GC should he falter.

But it also means the UAE Tour will act as a first test of how well he's adapted to his new team, and with Evenepoel as just one of many potential rivals – to name but two, keep your eyes open for Bahrain's Pello Bilbao and Jumbo-Visma's Sepp Kuss – It won't be a simple one.

Mark Cavendish honing his Astana lead-out train

After a low-key debut with Astana Qazaqstan in the Tour of Oman given the lack of bunch sprints, Mark Cavendish will go from famine to feast at the UAE Tour with up to four opportunities for the fastmen – and four opportunities, therefore, to test the fledgling Astana lead-out.

Cavendish has got some significant form when it comes to success in the UAE. He has seven wins there so far in his career, spread across the Tour of Dubai (which he also won outright in 2015), the Tour of Abu Dhabi and last year, his first in the UAE Tour in its current format.

So, quite apart from his unquestionable sprinting talents, he has more than enough experience and local knowledge to help him be up there in the action as well.

However, his team is still on a sharp learning curve when it comes to bunch sprint battles and here he'll be working with his number one lead-out man, Cees Bol, for the first time this season.

The sprint line-up, as ever in the UAE, is formidable, and quite possibly the deepest prior to the Spring Classics and/or the Grand Tours. A top result here, so early in the season, for Cavendish's new squad, would represent a massive boost to their morale, but in any case, it means UAE is where they'll get a real feel of what the scale of the challenges is for the rest of the season.

The rise and rise of Jay Vine

There seems to be no stopping Jay Vine at the moment. The inclusion of the Australian for UAE Emirates in their home race, which his team's head sports director Joxean Fernandez Matxin describes as second only to the Tour de France in importance, is yet another indication of how rapidly the Australian is rising through the Emirati ranks.

Victory in the one WorldTour stage race to date this year on home soil at the Tour Down Under, as well as the Australian time trial title, was the dream start to Vine's debut season at UAE.

Here joining forces with Brandon McNulty – fresh from a very solid performance in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana – and Adam Yates, the squad will be spoiled for choice when it comes to GC contenders for their home race, and their rivals could well end up thanking their lucky stars that Pogačar didn't opt to take part too.

In terms of other fast-rising talents to watch, Thomas Gloag was always going to be part of the Jumbo-Visma line-up for UAE. But after his stunning performance in Valenciana in his debut for the Dutch squad, claiming sixth and with some stand-out breakaways and attacks on the hillier stages to boot, it'll be intriguing to see how the Briton fares on the tougher UAE circuit. Watch this space.