After Wednesday's shock defeat of overwhelming favourite Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) on the Col de Granon by new race leader Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), the Tour de France GC battle on Alpe d'Huez on Thursday could essentially have gone one of two ways.
Either Pogačar's first, colossal setback in a Tour de France since he won the Tour in 2020 could have been followed by an even bigger time loss on Thursday, with the implicit recognition of Vingegaard as the most likely winner-in-waiting of the 2022 race. Or, on the Alpe d'Huez, Pogačar could start to fight back, start the process of showing that he was still in the game, and in the process all but guarantee he will make life difficult for Vingegaard for as much of the second part of the Tour as he possibly can.
As things turned out on the Alpe d'Huez, Pogačar went full on for option two.
For those expecting even more fireworks on July 14th, it has to be remembered that throughout stage 12, Jumbo-Visma did a faultless job of keeping up the pressure on Pogačar and his UAE teammates.
They turned the screws a little on the Galibier, the first of the three HC climbs, a lot more with Tiesj Benoot and Wout Van Aert towards the top of the Croix de Fer, and then even more with the rest of their team's climbers and allrounders on the Alpe d'Huez itself: first Benoot and then Van Aert again, Kruijswijk and a hugely impressive (remember his dislocated shoulder) Primož Roglič, and finally, and above all, Sepp Kuss.
All of which managed to ensure Pogačar was isolated, and simultaneously hollowed out the GC battle considerably. Outsiders like Romain Bardet (DSM), previously second overall, Nairo Quintana (Arkéa-Samsic), previously fifth, and Adam Yates (Ineos Grenadiers) all found themselves in trouble. Long term, these setbacks all play into Vingegaard's hands, as the GC is now looking considerably 'cleaner' than it was 24 hours ago, and that'll mean Jumbo-Visma have fewer rivals to control in the days to come.
However, when it came to Pogačar, for all they put him to the test with a tried and tested process of wearing him down, the best Jumbo-Visma could manage on Alpe d'Huez regarding the UAE leader was a draw. Because whatever caused Pogačar to nearly lose the plot on Wednesday, the UAE Team Emirates' collective assurances that Pogačar was far from finished after stage 11 proved 100 percent correct.
It's worth noting the Slovenian's two blistering attacks towards the summit of Alpe d'Huez and his final sprint to the line did not pack the same punch, perhaps, as if he had been absolutely on top of his A game. Furthermore, they weren't in such quick succession or followed by further accelerations, either, as they might have been, and most importantly, of course, Vingegaard seemingly closed them down without suffering too hard.
Yet it's also true that whatever Jumbo-Visma threw at Pogačar on stage 12, he could handle. (That the UAE leader did so in 37-degree Celsius temperatures also causes the longstanding idea that Pogačar couldn't handle the heat to silently evaporate as well.)
More than two riders
Long-term in the Tour, perhaps at Mende on Saturday, and almost certainly in the Pyrenees next week and in the final time trial, Pogačar has plenty of opportunities to strike back. What's more, as Bardet flailed, Pogačar has moved back up to second, 2:22. And he's still leading the best young rider's competition, too.
Small wonder, then, that Vingegaard said after Alpe d'Huez that his biggest task from now on was to stick to Pogačar. After all, if he keeps Pogačar on a short leash and if the gaps remain the same as they are right now on the eve of the final time trial, it'd be very hard for Pogačar to overhaul the Dane, third in last year's first-week race against the clock, at the last minute. To judge by Thursday, though, those remember big 'ifs'.
The Tour isn't quite down to just the top two riders on GC, of course. Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) may have been dropped when Pogačar attacked, but he clawed his way back on both occasions and is only trailing the Slovenian by four seconds.
But if Alpe d'Huez clarified the hierarchy in the Ineos Grenadiers team in his favour, currently the odds of final victory are more weighted in favour of Vingegaard and Pogačar, the top two in last year's race as well, than they are towards the Welshman.
But which of the two? Vingegaard has the upper hand for now, but it's clear that Pogačar is not going to let him have an easy ride to Paris, either, and Thomas cannot be ruled out either. Hold onto your hats, folks.
