A fast sprint finish or an all-out battle on the Poggio? How the first Milan-San Remo Women could play out

In cycling, nothing is ever truly predictable, but most big races start with the fans, riders and directors having at least some idea of how things will play out. 

The Tour of Flanders will be extremely selective, Strade Bianche will be decided on the steep, gravel sectors, Liège-Bastogne-Liège will be won or lost on the three final climbs. The racing is rarely completely formulaic, but these events have been going for years, the pattern is clear, the general way to win is understood by everyone. 

This weekend, however, that won’t be the case. When the women’s peloton lines up in Genoa for the start of the first Milan-San Remo Women in 20 years, there will be no accepted playbook, no historically key moment or climb, no plethora of finishes to look back on to work out exactly how to play it in the final.

A few directors in the cars will have raced the old Primavera Rosa, but no one on the road will have ever raced into San Remo before, and it’s proving increasingly difficult to predict how the race might go, or how hard the finale may turn out to be.

Can the sprinters like Elisa Balsamo and Lorena Wiebes survive the Cipressa and Poggio to fight for the line? Or will the Classics riders like Lotte Kopecky and Elisa Longo Borghini break things apart on the climbs? Are there even any points hard enough for a climber like Demi Vollering to attack? Maybe a long-range coup is possible if the peloton is caught sleeping?

The lack of answers is both nerve-wracking and exciting. Frustratingly for directors and team leaders, no one knows what is going to happen, but tantalisingly for viewers and journalists, no one knows what is going to happen. The Classics are always unpredictable, but this first revamped edition of Milan-San Remo Women is another level entirely, and it will never be this unknowable again.

Here’s what we do know, what we don’t, and what to expect on Saturday.

What we do know: the climbs will be key, but maybe not decisive

The most obvious, universally held truth about Milan-San Remo is that the iconic climbs – the Tre Capi trio, the Cipressa and the Poggio – will be key, but that doesn’t mean a climber is going to win this race.

Some may think that although the climbs look fast in the men’s race, the level is perhaps lower in the women’s peloton and therefore the climbs are going to look a lot harder. While it’s true that there is a difference in speeds between the men’s and women’s pelotons, it would be an overestimation of that gap to think that fast climbs for the men might look like real drags for the women.

"You watch it on the TV and you see the way that the men race, but being on the climbs in person, you really see how fast the climbs are. They're not steep at all," sports director Dani Christmas told Cyclingnews, fresh from recon with AG Insurance-Soudal. 

On paper, the climbs don’t look insignificant, but there are specifics that make the Cipressa and the Poggio extra fast compared to other climbs of a similar length or gradient – and therefore tough to make a difference on. 

"First off, it’s a really nice surface, but also, they’re just not that steep. You do it and there’s almost no real steep section," Christmas said.

While other climbs may have a low average gradient but several steeper ramps, the Cipressa and Poggio are extremely steady – the gradient you read is the gradient you get, it’s not an average that’s ironing out some big fluctuations.

"When we see the attacking nature of the top riders on [other] climbs, they’re often using the steepest sections, because when the speed is lower you have less drafting effect, so it’s less beneficial to be one the wheel. The whole thing is steady, and that’s why you see in the men’s race it’s a real lead-out and it can get strung out and that’s where you have to be in position and in the draft. 

"If you’re travelling at speeds around 30 kilometres an hour, and they’ll be doing it in excess of that, then you’re looking at an almost 20 per cent saving being sat in the wheel, so it’s a massive difference. There’s a fight for position, and it makes it really hard to just ride someone off your wheel if you’re just riding a hard tempo."

The idea that the women’s peloton shouldn’t overestimate the climbs was one shared by Elisa Balsamo, who said the ascents are “hard, but not crazy hard” and clearly backs her ability to get over them.

Of course, that’s not to say that riders won’t be able to attack or split things up on the climbs, but actually, it’s a fairly similar dilemma to the one men’s race hopeful Tadej Pogačar is facing. Can a climber actually make it hard enough? We’re certain that the big names are going to try, but while we know a strong rider can drop the sprinters in a race like Flanders or Strade Bianche, there’s a real question mark over whether that will work on Saturday.

What we don’t know: how far the sprinters can go 

It’s the relative gentleness of the climbs that has earnt the men’s Milan-San Remo the label of something of a sprinter’s Classics. Lots of editions have been won by solo attackers or small groups, especially in recent years, but pretty big sprints are also common in San Remo.

You should definitely expect an attacking race – even the flattest women’s Classics are unerringly aggressive – but no one is ruling out a sprint finish on the Via Roma. The purest sprinters may find the pacey climbs too much, but riders like Lorena Wiebes and Elisa Balsamo have proved time and time again that they can conquer more difficult climbs than Saturday’s, and the possibility of those riders surviving to the finish seems high. 

The sticking point, though, is that there are not many teams looking like they want to work for a sprint. Christmas’ team is four climbers and just two fast riders, and it’s a similar story in most squads. 

Wiebes is there for SD Worx-Protime, but with World Champion Lotte Kopecky making her season debut on Saturday, it’s hard to see that they’d favour a sprint over an attack from the Belgian. Balsamo is perhaps the only top-tier sprinter who is the out-and-out leader of her team, and her support squad is strong, but it’s still a tough ask for them to shut down attacks from the strongest riders in the world. 

"You’ve got different teams going in all with different objectives – some teams are looking to launch their climbers, others looking to bring it to a bunch sprint – so it’s really going to be the strengths of the teams, not just the individual riders, that will decide the results in the end," Christmas said. 

"There’s always a chance for [a bunch sprint]," she continued. “Binda is a good example. On the final lap on Sunday, twice we had a really select group being made on the climbs, but then if the cooperation isn’t there, it can all come back. It’s frustrating when it’s like that and you want to have a select group, but that’s the way the racing goes. 

"It’s only just over two kilometres from the bottom of the descent of the Poggio [to the finish line], so it’s not like there’s a huge amount of time to be able to bring a group back."

Where there is time for things to come back, though, is after the Cipressa, so don’t be surprised if we see sprinters distanced on that first climb, but then back in contention for the Poggio. There’s then only 3.7km of climbing to make a difference, and whatever group makes it to the top is probably the one that will contest the finish. 

Will it be like the men’s race?

Even though there’s no recent women’s race to look back at to preview this race, there are 115 editions of the men’s race to look at when trying to forecast tactics and outcomes.

Of course, the men’s race is hardly formulaic either – the favourites this year defending Tour de France champion and also the world’s best sprinter – but that doesn’t mean it’s not a useful tool for the women’s peloton to look at.

"Everyone has access to the previous editions of the men’s race, you can watch them for months and months, so you really get it drilled into your head," Christmas said, often using the men’s race as a reference point in her thinking and understanding of how things may play out.

These are two different editions of Milan-San Remo, with two totally different pelotons, but don’t expect them to be vastly different. Bar a disparity in length, the key points are all the same, the level in the women’s peloton is getting higher every year, and much of the narrative will be the same. The men’s race may be slightly more favoured to a bunch finish, but both races are set to see climbers vs sprinters, with a world champion trying to come out on top.

For all the analysis you can do on paper or out on recons, however, there is a huge element that’s almost hard to quantify, and that’s what is on the line here: the chance to make history, and kickstart the new era of this race. Kopecky in the rainbow jersey, Vos in a rare race she hasn’t won, Vollering with a point to prove, Balsamo chasing a fairytale – so many riders will be so motivated to win here that it almost matters less how suited they are to the course, they’re going to try and find a way to win anyway. 

So, what should you actually expect? For starters, a controlled race. No one wants a repeat of Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and the unknown roads will only increase the nerves. Secondly, a super fast ascent of the Cipressa. Big teams need to make it hard, and you can’t wait until the Poggio.

And finally, it’s almost pre-written that the world champion Kopecky is going to go big in the finale. But will she be able to get away and stay away? That’s much harder to predict. After 20 years of absence, it’s almost time to write the next chapter of the women’s Milan-San Remo, and reveal the unknown.