Giro d'Italia: 10 conclusions from the second week

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Vincenzo Nibali (Astana)(Image credit: Bettini Photo)

Will Nibali resist siren calls?

For many in the Italian press, final overall victory is already viewed as an inevitability and the cry has gone out for Nibali to crown his success with a stage victory and a healthy dollop of spettacolo. Gazzetta dello Sport beseeched Nibali to imitate Marco Pantani by attacking on the Galibier on Sunday, while others are holding out hope that the maglia rosa will produce a solo exploit in the Dolomites next week.

Impressive though he has been, Nibali’s lead over Evans is still just 1:26, however, and the cold conditions experienced by the gruppo over the past ten days mean that the dreaded jour sans could arrive at any time. The Stelvio and the Tre Cime di Lavaredo may call out like sirens to be graced with a performance for the ages, but so far, Nibali has resisted the temptation to do any more than what is necessary to keep padding out his advantage in small increments. If Nibali sticks to that game plan and avoids flying too close to the sun in the final week, a first Giro victory should be his.

Dislodging Nibali from the top of the standings could prove a big ask for Evans, however. In spite of his consistency through the first 15 stages, he has never put Nibali in difficulty and was soundly bettered by the Sicilian on the Jafferau on Saturday. It’s hard to see Evans making up the ground by simply outgunning Nibali in the Dolomites and instead he must maintain his standards deep into the final week and hope that Nibali suffers a bad day.

Mauro Santambrogio has enjoyed a remarkable renaissance since joining Vini Fantin-Selle Italia during the off-season and he was the only man able to live with Nibali on the Jafferau on Saturday. He has been an aggressive presence thus far and he can throw the cat amongst the pigeons by attacking in the Dolomites. Cadel Evans and Rigoberto Uran may be seeking opportunities to test Nibali, but they will also be looking over their shoulders nervously at the seemingly transformed Santambrogio.

Elsewhere, Carlos Betancur (Ag2r-La Mondiale) already has four second place finishes to his name and has shown a keen eye for racing for bonus seconds in the second week, while Rafal Majka (Saxo-Tinkoff) is another surprise package who had few qualms about going on the offensive on the Galibier. With the most difficult stages of the Giro are still to come, they have scope to make dramatic moves up the overall standings.

With Wiggins now plumped on the sofa it might appear that Astana’s task has become somewhat easier: one less rival to worry about and Uran now shouldering the weight of a nation/corporation on his shoulders. However without Wiggins, Sky can take a back seat, almost becoming a copy of BMC’s recent strategy, leaving Astana to control and measure their efforts. That’s fine for two weeks but the third week, with the continued bad weather expected, it should start to see Nibali’s men begin to weaken.

However on Saturday the French authorities announced the stage would finish much lower down the climb in Valloire and miss the Mont du Mont Cenis climb. RCS Sport used all their charm and negotiation skills to Convince them to change their mind. If the weather had been bad, they would have faced a serious protest from the riders and would have been forced to make an embarrassing late change or even cancel the stage. Luckily the snow only fell in the final kilometres and the stage will be remembered as one of the best stages of this year's Giro d'Italia.

Despite two stage wins this Giro certainly hasn’t gone to plan for Sky but despite the loss of Bradley Wiggins the team’s embarrassment of riches in talent still leaves them with shot at of least the runners-up spot in this year’s race. Rigoberto Uran has climbed superbly and but for a few cracks starting to appear on the climb to Bardonecchia, the Colombian has been ever present with the leaders. The time lost to Pescara is an easy point to suggest he could have been Nibali’s close challenger but if he’d not lost those seconds it’s arguable that he would not have been given the room to attack on the Altopiano del Montasio.

Those looking for omens to suggest that Uran might wilt in the third week, need only look at last year’s Giro, in which he became stronger as the race progressed. He started the second rest day of last year’s Giro in 11th, 2;56 down on the race leader Joaquim Rodriguez. He briefly rallied to 5th before consolidating seventh overall. With a mountain time trial to come and two more summit finishes remaining, this is biggest week of Uran’s career.

He’d done the hard part and stayed upright throughout the first week and on the eve of the first mountain stage it looked as though, finally, after all the false starts in recent years, Robert Gesink was ready to challenge for top honours. The time lost at Altopiano del Montasio was certainly a concern but not a game changer but when he trailed home 4;16 down on Santambrogio at Bardonecchia the writing was on the wall. Ushered home by three Blanco teammates Gesink cut a forlorn and defeated figure, all hope of a podium or even top five place in tatters.